EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

The EU have stated that the WA is final

Based on the red lines that May has stated up front. If those aren't going to change then nor will the EU.

I'd guess the EU would be willing to renegotiate and open up more if the UK wanted to keep freedom of movement for example. May isn't going to do this so the EU have shut up shop.

^ good point. If Labour/someone/anyone asked to extend A50, in order to renegotiate the WA with the aim of staying in the Single Market, which they believe they could get through parliament, would the EU be willing?

Cheers, what a dick (me), I'm sure I'll have more very simple questions shortly.

I had this moment yesterday. Took me a while to figure out.

But Labour politicians have also gone on record, publicly, speaking out against Freedom of Movement. Corbyn, Diane Abbott...

The official policy is that "easier immigration can be considered for EU trade deals" but there's isn't a real enthousiasm.

Barnier has already said that an easy trade deal is in reach, CU/SM it is then. But then, yeah, what's the use of brexit?

^ good point. If Labour/someone/anyone asked to extend A50, in order to renegotiate the WA with the aim of staying in the Single Market, which they believe they could get through parliament, would the EU be willing?

No one is, though.

Labour is saying "Single Market", but what they then go on to describe is a single market for Capital, Goods and Services - but not, erm, Labour. And that's impossible.

Labour has the same red-line on FoM as the Tories, and as we've been told for over two years, the four freedoms are indivisible.

Also, there's no time. and we've pissed any goodwill up the wall.

We have to sign the WA, get into transition, then negotiate as a third country.

That, no-deal, or remain, are the only options available to us.

That, no-deal, or remain, are the only options available to us.

Taking this ^ as a lemma:

1) The WA will not got passed, not enough votes.

2) No Deal is unpopular enough to be avoided at all costs (see Finance Bill amendment defeat).

3) Ergo, the third possibility is the only one that, uh, remains.

I look forward to keeping my red passport.

No one is, though.

No-one would/should/could at the moment though. Better to watch the Tories continue to disintegrate as they fight amongst themselves.

Right now is not the time to come up with an alternative if you're in opposition. The earliest that needs to happen is after May's WA is voted down and the vote of no confidence stuff is kicked off.

Also, there's no time. and we've pissed any goodwill up the wall.

I agree that the current Government (and their stubborn position) has pissed any goodwill up the wall. But a change of Government would change that. A change of UK position would certainly justify an extension or revocation of A50 with a view to working out what happens next (second ref, etc).

The most important statement from Westminster, yesterday,
was Keir Starmer,
clearly signalling to Michel Barnier, that the last 30 months of discussions
have been solely with the Tory Party,
distancing any grouping that may emerge after May's Withdrawal Agreement
is voted down next week.

Why would Labour come up with impossible scenarios only to then abandon them the second they get into power? Why would the EU trust that they will abandon the positions that they have (in the case of Gardiner) argued passionately for, the second they get into power?

Finally, why would they change the current WA, even if ALL red lines vanish and sanity breaks out? It gives the UK and EU a transition, if we intend on SM+CU then the backstop won't fire in anyway so that's a non-issue, so any sane government would agree to it and move straight into future relationship discussions.

If we don't agree a future relationship within the transition then we'll need the backstop, so it won't be coming out of the WA.

If, as a government, you want to leave then the current WA is as good as it's ever going to get, and as good as it needs to be.

If, as a government, you want to remain then withdraw A50.

If they negotiate and then decide to move into the Single Market (so FOM) again, then they basically put millions of EU citizens in the UK and Brits in mainland EU in the stress for nothing.

But, hey-ho, politics isn't personal. Until it is.

If we are in SM and CU, remind me what the point of leaving is again? We're in the same position we are now, but with zero say in what happens.

This is the argument Labour can make, but only after May’s deal is voted down.

Btw, did you see the BBC research which suggests May will lose by over 200 votes?

Yes, a drubbing. Given that we're going to need this deal that's not actually good news though!

It is. If there is no stomach for no deal, and May’s deal manages to unite both Leave and Remain supporting MPs in opposition to vote it down, there needs to be alternative. I don’t know what that is, but it’s going to be better than those two.

Well, lets look at the options.

If May's WA gets voted down, there's a no confidence vote which she loses, would that trigger a GE or a Tory leadership contest?

If there's an option there, and I was a Tory leadership candidate, I'd be tempted (based on the current polling results) to go for a GE - because currently Labour would lose, if of course polling is correct.

Who knows? It’s speculation, but it’s clear, to me, that there is a majority in the Commons to defeat May’s deal, and the same to prevent no deal. This week has shown that a large number of MPs are prepared to mobilise to prevent self harm. Let’s hope that continues.

If there's no majority for the deal or for no deal then the option has to be remain, but the government has to revoke A50 and it's unclear to me how MP's would force them to do that.

While I agree that Labour may be making over-optimistic noises, with a different political approach (keeping EU institutions, ECHR, guaranteeing EU citizens' rights, etc.) a different withdrawal agreement is certainly possible. How different it would be I don't know, but it can't be stressed enough how ridiculous May and the Brexiteers have been in this. Overconfident, incompetent, and probably rather lazy in the case of certain politicians with a reputation for it--none of that works in Europe. Anyway, as said passim ad nauseam, solving the problems of Europe isn't going to happen with the same political approach as that of the last 40-odd years.

Precisely.

See my previous post.

revoke A50 and it's unclear to me how MP's would force them to do that.

I think it will happen by it being revoked to cause an extension to allow us to "renegotiate". And then it will never be re invoked as the deadlock continues.

That's not allowed, though.

I believe it will be allowed by the EU if the WA is defeated and a revocation is necessary to avoid no deal.