EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

Challenge with the A50 rescindination is who would do it?

Isn't the 'backstop' just a huge fudge anyway?

Parliament.

The whole thing is a huge fudge, from the initial referendum right through to where we are now.

The ECJ ruling is that the UK can decide to cancel A50, within the two years, and the EU cannot stop it doing so.

The issue is therefore at our end, not the EU's.

To cancel A50 we would need some legislation to reverse the original triggering of A50. Legislation can only be introduced by the Government (not parliament) and it takes time. By the end of Jan, we may not have the time (i am not an expert in legislation, but one issue is that it must "lay" in parliament for at least 21 days (might be wrong) before taking effect)

Parliament.

Reckon there's the votes for that though?

Reckon there's the votes for that though?

No. The fundamental problem is that no one outcome has the support of a majority in Parliament. Which means that Parliament, while it has 'control', can't make a decision.

Even Belgium during the period of no government for over a year, looked more organised than this bunch of charlatans.

How do we know that? We haven’t had any vote of substance on Brexit during this parliament. There is lots of speculation on numbers, but until that is put to the test it is essentially meaningless.

But what a spineless fucking move by this shit shower of a government. Strong and stable, apparently.

"The Government has made a statement that political agreement on withdrawal agreement & future framework has been reached, the requirements for the Government to make a statement to the House by 21 Jan on ‘no deal’ has been superseded.

brexit feels a bit like this, and i'm pretty sure we're the ones struggling uphill

If the decision is between no deal and revocation (with the possibility of resubmission once the house is on order), I think revocation will pass.

Well yes. But the 'backstop' specifically seems to just be a new name for 'unsolved problem #1'. Only now that it's called a 'backstop' it sounds like some kind of solution rather than "We don't actually know how to solve this but we'll keep talking about it".

But what a spineless fucking move by this shit shower of a government

Yeah. What a fucking climbdown. How do you recover from that?

There's not a majority in favour of the draft withdrawal agreement, otherwise May wouldn't have pulled the vote. There's not a majority in favour of withdrawing the Art 50 notice and remaining in the EU, as Labour members would be whipped against voting for it, and they and the ERG nutters would together carry enough votes to vote it down. There's not a majority in favour of leaving with no deal, because only the ERG are stupid/blinkered enough to think that's a good idea. The alternatives involve cake, unicorn poo and magic fairy dust..

Haha! Spot on.

I prefer the cricket analogy, where you only really put in a backstop when your wicket keeper is
completely shit.

There's not a majority in favour of withdrawing the Art 50 notice and remaining in the EU, as Labour members would be whipped against voting for it

I'd pay good money to hear those conversations.

. There's not a majority in favour of withdrawing the Art 50 notice and remaining in the EU, as Labour members would be whipped against voting for it

In the case of no deal as the other scenario? Absolutely they would not.

fudge

That's one of the export items Britain will be trying to sell outside of Europe, along with jam and clotted cream. Best of luck!

I'd pay good money to hear those conversations

This - the Whips' office would have to have some serious shit on some of their MPs to 'persuade' some of them.

But there will always be "the deal" to help muddy the waters.

This picture from @HouseofCommons on twitter is sort of useful.

I'd still like to know what the could feasibly be done between 26 Jan and 29 March if no deal is on the cards.

Needs to be updated.

If the decision is between no deal and revocation (with the possibility of resubmission once the house is on order), I think revocation will pass.

As the weeks tick by this choice becomes the only option left. There is not and never has been a majority for hard Brexit in Parliament or the country. If May can string this out till the last moment it lessens the opportunity for Brexiteers to demand a re-negotiation or for Labour to turn it into a call for general election.