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But in a way it is an educational issue, nothing in life can be predicted to 100% certainty, and most people don't accept that a shifting model with 80% accuracy assuming 60% of things stay the same is not exactly the same as somebody pulling hot air out of their ass.
Oh god yes, this kind of thing regularly drives me up the walls. Especially when it's applied to science-based stuff. E.g. on the 'hyperloop' topic, engineers say "Yeah maintaining a huge vacuum is going to be an issue for these reasons", and then some idiots come along and go "oh but people in 1800 thought it was impossible to fly, so what you just said isn't worth anything, and everything is possible". Like, yeah, people have been wrong before, but it comes in different 'intensities', you know? A text on that I would always recommend is "The relativity of wrong" by Isaac Asimov (the scifi author, 'Foundation' etc. - but he also wrote 'science-y' books and other stuff).
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SwissChap
marxist_vulcan
And even when experts butt in a projected futures "nobody can predict the future"
Sure, sure, let's throw all the modelling we use for complex projects / the NHS out of the window too.
But in a way it is an educational issue, nothing in life can be predicted to 100% certainty, and most people don't accept that a shifting model with 80% accuracy assuming 60% of things stay the same is not exactly the same as somebody pulling hot air out of their ass.
But you don't get that stuff as school either.