• We've probably gone over this to death, but I think if there were only two options on the ballot: Deal or Remain, then Remain have a chance of winning.

    But if it's 3 options: Deal, No Deal or Remain with some sort of transferable vote system, then Deal will probably clinch it.

  • I'd have thought those who want remain would vote remain, and those who want to leave would split their votes between deal and no deal.

  • Some remain voters may not understand deal consequences and vote deal anyway. No idea how large that percentage is, so there's a risk it'll be a split vote.

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