EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

My view is that they won't vote for a sea border, which is why I disagree with you.

The discussion has been whether they would support May's plan, and potentially a referendum with it as an option on the ballot. Foster called the leaked details of the negotiations a "total betrayal" and the possibility of it a "blood red line." They will not vote for May's plan if it's part of it, and they will not vote for a referendum if it's on the ballot. They will not support it, nor will they be accountable in it coming about by making it possible with their votes.

Imho.

Again, I think they'll work something out when push comes to shove. It'll be stupid and ugly, and I have no idea what it could be, but I think they will. And I still hope that I'm wrong.

The EU might throw Ireland under the bus, but I can't see it.

Imho.

Time for empirical testing!

The DUP would not, in this hypothetical situation, matter if Labour voted for the referendum in the hope of then leveraging a no-deal result into a GE. That's a bit torturous as a chain of events though, I would think that they'd vote down a referendum to bring down Mays government and get the GE. However, they're trailing the Cons by 4 points in the latest poll (I know, right!), which means we might get another Tory gubmint.

Time for empirical testing!

Indeed. Although I'm still not sure we'll get to the "vote on a referendum" stage, or if we do, that it would necessarily look like this.

Interesting days to come.

There may be more options available - I can only think of three that would be available if the deal were voted down. What have I missed?

• May resigns/GE
  
• Referendum
  
• May tries to hang on
  

Tories choose another leader, no ge, back to negotiating table or embrace hard Brexit.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/city-hall-will-help-eu-citizens-apply-for-settled-status-a3985836.html

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/12/brexit-plan-complete-shambles-uk-boss-of-thyssenkrupp-says

Tories choose another leader, no ge, back to negotiating table or embrace hard Brexit.

I think once the deal is offered by the EU27 then that's it - no more negotiation, take it or leave it.

That would put the new Tory leader in command of steering the UK into the iceberg, with 2-3 months of economic carnage to forge through before we finally crashed into it.

I don't think that government could survive, so it'd essentially be the GE option, but a bit slower.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/senior-ministers-are-telling-theresa-may-to-go-for-a-no

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-46178534

The Common Travel Area is "written in sand" and should get legal certainty in a new treaty between Ireland and the UK, a report has concluded.

The study, by four legal academics, was prepared for the Northern Ireland Human Rights Commission and the Irish Human Rights and Equality Commission.

Le sigh. But yeah it is very much a "gentleman's agreement". And with the UK not being so gentlemanly atm...

So in other words, nothing new then. This is still the same thing they've been pushing for for a while. I'm now about 85% convinced a no-deal is about to happen.

Yeah me too. Its gonna be no deal

This self-destruction would be fascinating to watch if I didn't live in the middle of it.

This self-destruction would be fascinating to watch if I didn't live in the middle of it.

There is a part of me that's like 'Bring it on' - I think the only way in which people will actually understand what they voted for is if they burn in their own fire

I'm still holding out hope they'll panic and cancel it if comes down to a chaotic no deal as the only Brexit option.

Feels like most politicians are only following it through for self-preservation reasons; if a market crashing disastrous Brexit is on the verge of happening, surely even the most spineless among them will realise it's going to cost them power and they might as well do anything to prevent it.

Am I confused ! All this talk of a sea board and the DUP, aren't they just as against a boarder on the island of Ireland ? if so they have two options, leave light and stay in the customs union or we just have a second vote and remain, well there is a third a united Ireland, but then we're back to a sea boarder.

If we leave with no deal they will have to have a board on the island of Ireland as we have to be able to count everything in and out of the country to comply with WTO or we just open the boards and have totally free trade with everybody (chlorinated chicken etc)

That's my very limited understanding of it anyway.

Spoilers: they won't. 100% any failure will be laid at the doorstep of remoaners and will be the first major wedge leading us to American situation where the divisions between two sides stop any meaningful progress or discussions

surely even the most spineless among them will realise it's going to cost them power

Will it though? Action don't seem to have much in the way of consequences in British politics at the moment.

Yeah, at the risk of sounding (even more) like a Debbie downer I'm pretty sure that most British Politicians will have had the connections to ensure that a hard brexit has 0 financial implications for them and will have made use of those connections by now

What's the motivation for them to see it through though, if the consequences pretty much guarantee them being hammered at the next election?

Anyway, I do accept that it's just a hope. The way it's gone so far doesn't inspire any confidence that pragmatism will play a part.

if the consequences pretty much guarantee them being hammered at the next election

But that's the point, will it? There are way enough people out there who honestly believe any negative consequences of Brexit are either just the EU's fault, or the remainers' fault for 'sabotaging the process' or whatever.

Additionally: as Labour is not positioning itself as the anti-Brexit party, that alone will most likely save the Tories.

The word is "border", with no "a" in it.

Boaring.