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In the name of science I just set my FTP 200W higher than previously estimated and did a Ramp Test with the resulting higher start wattage.
Result: 5W lower estimated FTP than previous test result.
That's pretty damn close, well within my margin of error, considering I'm somewhat congested and I'd already done a short lunch session.
The second higher one was better with the no shifting but it felt like I’d spent too long in the upper third. Hence why I think Friday will see another improvement. All a learning curve at the moment.