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I follow the overall approach, but I'm not sure about the details. Essentially, braking deceleration (which is the only thing different when comparing rim brakes vs disc brakes) is introduced at the rim in one case, and on the hub (via the disc that is supposed to be rigidly connected to the hub) in the other case. Without looking at it in detail, I wouldn't say it's entirely ridiculous to assume that could result in a different amount of force being transmitted through the spokes, or a different distribution?
Isn't the real point here though that modern spokes are usually strong enough anyway? I'm usually above the weight wheels are really built for, wheels have fewer spokes than ever before, and spokes breaking on quality wheels is not something I hear about every day, or that has happened much to me... apart from the really cheap, really shit wheelsets I used to buy once upon a time.
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SwissChap
I'd say so, yes. So it's easier, rather than trying to model the individual components of the wheel, to work on the basis that you have a decelerative force at the contact patch and this is being resolved by the wheel as a whole to the axles, which are the only parts of the wheel system rigidly attached to the frame and forks. The only things connecting the axle and the contact patch is the spokes, so for the same decelerative effect at the contact patch and the same number of spokes the average spoke loading must be roughly the same.