EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

From the BBC:

'She tried to reassure MPs the UK wouldn't end up in "permanent limbo", tied to the EU's customs rules, and did her best to convince Sinn Fein's leaders that she would not sign up to any deal which created a new border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.'

Have a feeling SF would probably be alright with that...

I suspect that these problems are perfect for SF as all they need to do is point the fingers at Westminster. They don't take their seats due to a long abstentionist policy, which their voters support, so they are in the perfect position to criticize from the sideline, play to the gallery and try to force a border poll.

Did I mention I don't quite trust them...? :)
Now, if there is indeed a workable compromise that won't harm NIs economy (which seems unlikely) then it would be interesting to see what they would do.

Besides, such a solution doesn't atm exist, the technology isn't even there in Norway/Sweden. They've been at this goods checking for years.

But what happens then?
New PM comes onboard, they formulate something that can work and go back to the EU?

No, we know what works- accept what the EU has been offering for two years.

Would that get through parliament if it was Labour pushing it?

I am confused. Is she adressing Sinn Fein in the UK or Sinn Fein in Eire? If the former then are we talking SF council politicians or SF MPs? The SF Westminster MPs are still not involved in debates right?

No Conservative leader can accept what the EU is offering. They are hamstrung by their own party and the DUP. So a change of leader will not change anything, other than making no deal even more likely.

But the Tories also will not call a GE, for fear of Labour taking power and the Tories then being in opposition for a generation.

Maybe a new referendum will help, but I'm not convinced of that either.

I think it's just a typo and they meant to write DUP?

It’s a question of what May can survive- can she get the budget through, if not is that her doom, if she can survive that can she then survive not being able to pass the withdrawal bill? I don’t think she’d be able to survive that as Nissan would have to start seriously moving abroad.

Although Corbyn might get it through by adding a Scotland backstop.

Staying in the customs union and single market will not cause any delays and that is the only way to keep Nissan and others with certainty.

And that's on offer from the EU, but not from the Tories or even Labour, though they may turn around. Maybe.

Labours position is identical to the Tories apart from the time limit on a customs union. The withdrawal agreement that the EU would sign with a Corbyn government is identical to what is on offer today.

We would therefore see Corbyn trying to get enough votes for the bill that caused the last government to fall.

I think he’d have to offer Sturgeon Scottish Independence, or very significant devolution to get her MPs to vote it through- at a minimum Scotland staying in SM.

Who could possibly have known that Northern Ireland would cause problems with Brexit? At least now that we do know we can quickly come up with a solution that everyone is happy with.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/16/eu-scraps-plans-for-brexit-summit-statement-on-future-trade-deal
It is a good job we have that Dominic Raab progressing our withdrawal from the EU.

That’s to do May a favour- she asked for backstop #2 (UK wide customs union) and that has to be in the future declaration rather than A50, so they’re hiding that until she agrees to backstop #1 to make it easier to get past the lunatics. Not that I think that will work, but doesn’t cost the EU to try to help.

Is the DUP bribe refundable?

ftfy . . . . . . Clare in the Community

I imagine falling over the budget would be better for the Tories come a general election than falling over a 'Brexit' deal being voted down. I still don't imagine either to happen--I think Tories of all stripes and DUP will just pull together and vote both through, but as I've said before, I really hope I'm wrong.

The DUP won’t vote for a sea border, no way.

So true tho.

Precisely. One can only hope some massive unexpected bombshell comes out of the RHI investigation in NI to implicate Arlene Foster personally in the cover-up activity and take their eyes off the ball. But even then, there’s no chance.

Every reasonable person would expect that, certainly. However, this whole process is so deeply irrational, and even more so after May's election blunder, that I wonder if the logical problem that exists over the Irish border issue, which any reasonable person would recognise, won't be dealt with highly illogically. This could mean some sort of fudge that the DUP can just about accept. I don't know what that could be, but I doubt very much that I could comprehend it even if I knew--just look at the silly nonsense May has so far come up with to present to Europe (where it has of course been rejected, but would the DUP behave so predictably?).

I mean, I obviously hope that reason will prevail and that something comprehensible will happen, but on past form I'm not optimistic. They really, really don't want a general election, the question is just to what lengths they will go to prevent one.

Of Tory 'rebels', only Ken Clarke can do what he wants. There may be four or five others, plus perhaps some (ex-) 'Labour' Brexiters again (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/17/labour-mp-votes-brexit-deselect). A one-vote majority or something like that? Parliamentary arithmetic does my head in.

tl;dr--I don't have any idea.

May would be reliant, I think, on a decent number of Labour MP's voting with her, although I do wonder which way the Lib Dems would jump.

EU 27 declare Insufficient progress made - November summit to ratify WA cancelled (or more accurately not scheduled).

Might be wise to sell any remaining GBP that people were hoarding. Quite quickly.

Won't it just roll out into the long grass ?