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I write about the energy markets for a living, you know.
I didn't know, I work in the industry in Aberdeen, spent some years as a field engineer doing Open Hole Wireline onshore and offshore, actually did some CST on a Cuadrilla site in North West England in 2011 I think, not that that qualifies me or anything, but what i will say is, British drillers are/were bloody slow, the ones I saw anyway!
Currently a Mechanical engineer, office based, still massive in O&G :)a) 2015 is not 2018
Noted but can't find anything more recent, apparently we have started importing LNG from Russia or did so earlier in the year.
b) we're talking about the future, anyway. There is very little incremental supply left in the North Sea - the Norwegians aren't expecting any significant gas capacity additions after Polarled comes on stream. So in the future we're going to have to rely increasingly on imports from further afield. Those are a) Russia and b) LNG. Where it will come from depends mostly on the relative price of supply.
Very true, there has been very little exploration of late in the north sea so that hasn't helped, a few bits and bobs popping up now but certainly all the easy stuff is gone!
c) Yes, they don't know how much shale potential there is until they actually try to produce some. You need to drill to understand the geology.
Yup, they can however state proven, possible and probable reserves, from there they can determine whether it is worthwhile going in further, they obviously think it is.
d) That study seems to focus on the highest end of the cost range rather than the lower end.
Ok, I suppose this is a tricky thing to answer as we are missing a lot of variables. We don't have the proven reserves, we don't know how much can be economically recovered, how efficiently and quickly the wells can be learnt to optimise production, the effect of environmental policy on costs, such as the cost of treating the fracking water. What will help profitability and viability will be fiscal incentives from government, possibly learning lessons from the US shale industry to streamline UK companies efforts, technology and methods will continue to improve to make unconventional hydrocarbon recovery a better prospect. From what I have read, I don't really think that Shale is terribly viable without policy change and help from gov and an up-scaling of the services industry in the UK.
For completeness, just read this prior to replying and is an interesting take on the viability of shale.
Bernhard-
I remember reading that in 2013 - I agree with the conclusions. The interconnectedness of the European gas market means that you just won't get a significant long-term price differential between the UK and the continent any more (Brexit chaos notwithstanding!).
There are a lot of questions about shale, I agree. I would just like to understand a little better from the test wells whether any of these issues can be addressed, and I don't think the public debate will move on meaningfully without some test drilling. If the test drilling shows it's not worth the effort, then we should definitely scrap it.
h2o
I write about the energy markets for a living, you know.
a) 2015 is not 2018
b) we're talking about the future, anyway. There is very little incremental supply left in the North Sea - the Norwegians aren't expecting any significant gas capacity additions after Polarled comes on stream. So in the future we're going to have to rely increasingly on imports from further afield. Those are a) Russia and b) LNG. Where it will come from depends mostly on the relative price of supply.
c) Yes, they don't know how much shale potential there is until they actually try to produce some. You need to drill to understand the geology.
d) That study seems to focus on the highest end of the cost range rather than the lower end.