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ONS report from 2015 shows we don't heavily rely on Russia for hydro carbons and not at all for gas
I write about the energy markets for a living, you know.
a) 2015 is not 2018
b) we're talking about the future, anyway. There is very little incremental supply left in the North Sea - the Norwegians aren't expecting any significant gas capacity additions after Polarled comes on stream. So in the future we're going to have to rely increasingly on imports from further afield. Those are a) Russia and b) LNG. Where it will come from depends mostly on the relative price of supply.
c) Yes, they don't know how much shale potential there is until they actually try to produce some. You need to drill to understand the geology.
d) That study seems to focus on the highest end of the cost range rather than the lower end.
h2o-
I write about the energy markets for a living, you know.
I didn't know, I work in the industry in Aberdeen, spent some years as a field engineer doing Open Hole Wireline onshore and offshore, actually did some CST on a Cuadrilla site in North West England in 2011 I think, not that that qualifies me or anything, but what i will say is, British drillers are/were bloody slow, the ones I saw anyway!
Currently a Mechanical engineer, office based, still massive in O&G :)a) 2015 is not 2018
Noted but can't find anything more recent, apparently we have started importing LNG from Russia or did so earlier in the year.
b) we're talking about the future, anyway. There is very little incremental supply left in the North Sea - the Norwegians aren't expecting any significant gas capacity additions after Polarled comes on stream. So in the future we're going to have to rely increasingly on imports from further afield. Those are a) Russia and b) LNG. Where it will come from depends mostly on the relative price of supply.
Very true, there has been very little exploration of late in the north sea so that hasn't helped, a few bits and bobs popping up now but certainly all the easy stuff is gone!
c) Yes, they don't know how much shale potential there is until they actually try to produce some. You need to drill to understand the geology.
Yup, they can however state proven, possible and probable reserves, from there they can determine whether it is worthwhile going in further, they obviously think it is.
d) That study seems to focus on the highest end of the cost range rather than the lower end.
Ok, I suppose this is a tricky thing to answer as we are missing a lot of variables. We don't have the proven reserves, we don't know how much can be economically recovered, how efficiently and quickly the wells can be learnt to optimise production, the effect of environmental policy on costs, such as the cost of treating the fracking water. What will help profitability and viability will be fiscal incentives from government, possibly learning lessons from the US shale industry to streamline UK companies efforts, technology and methods will continue to improve to make unconventional hydrocarbon recovery a better prospect. From what I have read, I don't really think that Shale is terribly viable without policy change and help from gov and an up-scaling of the services industry in the UK.
For completeness, just read this prior to replying and is an interesting take on the viability of shale.
Bernhard
ONS report from 2015 shows we don't heavily rely on Russia for hydro carbons and not at all for gas
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/environmentalaccounts/articles/ukenergyhowmuchwhattypeandwherefrom/2016-08-15
The likelihood of that changing much is unlikely, the Russia argument isn't really there, we do get a fair wedge of petrol from them though.
This, redacted, paper from 2014 by UK Gov gives estimates of potential supplies of gas, ranging from 1.1% of consumption to 89% of current consumption, so they didn't really know how much gas they really do have and even if their optimistic results are in place, they would need to drill 1100 wells a year (they also state this is highly unlikely).
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/337654/RFI6751_Draft_Shale_Gas_Rural_economy_impact_report.pdf
This article here shows the effect of shale gas on the UK economy would be tiny.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261918301764
In my opinion, the folk that will benefit the most are those that own, drill and frack these wells.
This is leaving out the potential ecological damage and the eyesore of thousands of wells having to be drilled to keep producing.