EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

It would prevent / defer everyone from losing. And make EU look good.

But yeah that’s the danger

Well, never say never - but I would not expect that to happen. I think the EU are now very keen to get rid of us.

You're believing Boris.

Basically so far the game has been:
1: EU, we don't want to mess up peace in NI, surely they'll see sense to protect jobs and trade
...many few months later...
2: EU: OK, what on earth UK, but we don't let them mess up the peace in NI
...again
3: EU we won't let them mess up the peace in NI, but WTF
...5 months to go...
????

Who?

Who can blame them. But a hard Brexit would also tank the Irish economy, so they would seek to prevent that I think.

Never mind the peace process in NI. I’m still incredulous that we have a Govt, propped up by a Northern Irish party, prepared to sacrifice peace for no benefit.

Wankers.

Who can blame them. But a hard Brexit would also tank the Irish economy, so they would seek to prevent that I think.

Well talk today is the UK staying in a CU, with NI staying in the SM - so border in the Irish Sea.

May is going to need Labour votes to get that through, or it's still no deal.

Ultimately the EU can't give May a deal that she can get through parliament, is the problem.

as we'd just piss about more

Given the likely shortage of drinking water, that would be unwise, frankly.

#projectfear

Parliamentary arithmetic (which never ceases to be baffling):

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/05/may-secretly-woos-key-labour-mps-to-back-her-brexit-deal

Can May survive having to call on Labour to get her deal past the ERG and DUP?

And would that deal still fail the "Meaningful vote"?

She’d get a Norway type deal through.

Which would be a (her words) huge betrayal of the vote.

I doubt she'd survive putting that forward, so what's more important - Norway, or Power?

Power

She is a self interested cunt, power over principles

But has a very tenuous grip on power, her parliamentary majority (and the first the Tories had in almost 20 years) wiped out by her own misjudgement, hanging onto a majority through an arrangement with a party who make your own look progressive.

She can't get any Brexit deal through Parliament, unless she goes for the softest of Brexits. Even if she attempts a no deal Brexit, her Government would collapse before it happened, as the cliff edge would see the value of the pound plummet and a vote of no confidence would pass.

Constraints are a good thing rite

There'll be some kind of fudge. Boris might think he can beat Corbyn but I doubt many of his colleagues do and words will be found that mollify them over the EU. Some Labour MPs might well vote with May.

There was an Economist article several, (6 or 7?), years ago, that predicted that the discussion of the UK's continued membership of the EU would re-align Westminster.

It predicted that the rabid brexitty wing of the Tory party, (which would the include out&out racists who voted BNP in previous elections), would be left behind by the centrist Tories, at initially a cost of some 10s of parliamentary seats, (currently hardline ERG members), but these constituencies would drift back to the continuing parties as the UK seldom sustains more than 14-15% for the extreme Right, (witness voters deserting BNP & Ukip councillors once they prove to be useless/ineffective/unable to deliver their campaign slogans).
The article continued with a suggestion that the ContinuityBlairite faction would see some defections to a Tory party shorn of its 'swivel-eyed loons', and a more Socialist Labour party, (but no prediction of Jeremy Corbyn). It was written when the LibDems were still viable, so they also split with many of the Orange Book Liberals becoming the Tories they always were.

The article seemed to be predicated upon the falsehood that the 'Tories are the natural party of Power', and that once the numbers added up, (Blairites-kippers >zero), the 'Men in Grey Suits' that run the Tories would have no compunction in casting off the rabid rightwingers.

It certainly fits the evidence of a large setion of TMay's conference speech that was a loveletter to disgruntled Labour backbenchers.

The BBC is running articles on the past in NI.

The very moderate rights realtor Catholics/nationalists proposed by an ex army officer leading the uup was blocked by politicians of what later became the DUP.

That was the late 60s. Nothing changed. The DUP has always been in bed with the Tories. It is not right but not surprising.

Good article in the Graun about the DUP, suggesting that they have confused the Brexiters Nationalism with Patriotism.

I.e. the Brexiters would happily let NI sink into the sea at this point if it meant they could have their fantasy Brexit.

young conservatives.

any guesses as to what was blurred out above NHS?

also: "Hnnnng... your hair smells different when you're awake..."

Cameron remains unpopular (as per the replies to his tweet)

https://twitter.com/David_Cameron/status/1047146670016876551

Helpful advice from the Mail on Sunday on what to watch out for after a hard Brexit

We got out World War 2 to avoid this shit.

I felt rather sick, to see something that 100% can be easily avoided, getting pushed through, at the risk of mine and everyone else health.