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The Tories aren’t going to flip to remain.
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I really think you are constructing fantasies, Neil.
As I've said before, I think May will be Prime Minister until 2021, by which time the Tories will have implemented the Boundary Review. May sacked Osborne, who was behind much of the gerrymandering plans, and tried to go it alone based on the polls, and fell flat on her face. Not quite flat enough, leading to this current limbo situation, but the resurgent Labour Party means that no-one, not even Boring Johnson, will challenge her in her weakness, despite his sabre-rattling. (Then again, he's such an incompetent politician that he may risk it, who knows? We'll see if being funny on TV translates into electoral success again. He's just part-ditched a massive liability which means that he may dare to try again.) Now she's discreetly going back to some of Osborne's plans.
I really, really hope I'm completely and utterly wrong.
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The economic impact of No Deal would be bad, but a minimal "Canada" Free Trade deal would also be bad, just less so, and so any party delivering it would be doing so for a small minority, and the majority would abandon them for a generation in response to the effects, leaving the Tories free to do what they want - a point which you are ignoring.
I wasn't, I was just drafting a post in reply to that, although I don't have much to say on it, as I don't think it's going to happen that way.
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andyp
Oliver Schick
@Dammit
We shall see, maybe empirical testing is the only way at this point.
Give people a choice between Labour Brexit and Tory Remain and the Tories will walk it.
Betting that the Tories will view sacking May and flipping to Remain in order to retain power goes against everything we've seen from them - always retain power, then worry about detail afterwards.
And, if that comes to pass, then voting Tory is actually the only way to save the NHS, which is bitterly ironic.
The economic impact of No Deal would be bad, but a minimal "Canada" Free Trade deal would also be bad, just less so, and so any party delivering it would be doing so for a small minority, and the majority would abandon them for a generation in response to the effects, leaving the Tories free to do what they want - a point which you are ignoring.