• Very few people, you being in a small minority, will decide not to vote Labour because of them not opposing 'Brexit'.

    my fb feed (which is an undeniable bubble) is also full of chat about this - people who feel like Dammit.

  • my fb feed (which is an undeniable bubble) is also full of chat about this - people who feel like Dammit.

    Echo chamber effect, as you say. The question to ask is whether those people would really not vote Labour if faced with the choice between a seemingly fairly benign Labour 'Brexit' (not that I'm trying to greenwash 'Brexit', I think it would be stupid for Labour to plough ahead with it, too) or the chance of some political change around the issue (see above), or a Tory 'Brexit' that clearly is aiming at stripping back rights, environmental protection, etc.

    In a proportional voting system, voting for a smaller party under those circumstances makes sense; in a first-past-the-post system (unless, as I said, you're in a constituency where a smaller party has a chance of winning a seat, e.g. Lib Dems or Brighton) it makes no sense whatsoever.

    Also, of course Brexit would be a big issue if it happened under some kind of catastrophic deal/'no deal' arrangement. I wasn't talking about that, but about its significance as an election issue. Labour brilliantly outflanked May the last time when they talked about completely different things instead. As an electoral issue it's not nearly as important or immediate to most people as all the other things that are wrong. Most people can't predict how 'the economy' will go--on past form, most economists can't, either. Some powerful stock or currency gamblers perhaps can to some extent, but partly because they'll be influencing the outcome by where they put their money. People care about things they understand--public services (see the 'Brexit' NHS bollocks), how politics makes them feel, etc., not dire abstract warnings from 'Project Fear' (still ongoing). Obviously, the challenge for Labour is to actually get their vote out, but the strategy of moving the focus away from a problem the Tory party mainly has still seems right to me. And Labour simply are right not to disregard the referendum result. So far, they've made a very good fist of what for them is a very difficult situation.

    Hammond will never be Tory leader. He has negative charisma. Even May is better (until she commits those unspeakable blunders like those that characterised her election campaign, fields of wheat and so on).

  • Echo chamber effect, as you say.

    This is interesting Oliver, can you reference any poll that says that my concerns are not shared by anyone other than the people in Hoefla (and Howards?) circle of friends?

    To add, I don't think we have Labour and Conservative politicians any more - I think we have Leave and Remain MP's, scattered through both parties in a relatively stochastic manner.

    Ignoring the defining issue of this, and likely the next, generation isn't going to make it go away (sadly).

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