-
As I said, you're in a small minority in changing your Labour-voting behaviour because of Labour 'respecting' the referendum result--I'm certain very few people will do this.
What are you basing this on? The 86% of Labour voters who want a second referendum?
Dammit-
It was members rather than voters. Voters is a lot less clear cut.
-
As I said, I think I've read a couple of studies about this, but I can't find them now (#classicInternetexcuse). They were probably reported on in Guardian articles. The main upshot was that Labour-voting 'Remain' supporters were significantly less likely not to vote Labour because of the party's stance on this (in large part because they had nowhere else to go (except, perhaps, in the very few constituencies where Labour are up against the Lib Dems)) than Tory voters would be to vote Tory in the same scenario, but also because they mainly, positively, supported Labour's programme for government.
There are gazillions of studies on whether people support 'Leave' or 'Remain' and how that has changed, but it seems far fewer on how that has affected actual voting.
Here's an article I just found, on the 2017 general election result (but can't remember seeing before)--obviously, things have moved on since then:
https://www.opinium.co.uk/labour-approach-brexit-reassure/
There's no date on it, so I don't know when it was published. I also don't know if Opinium is credible or some kind of sock puppet.
There's another article linked from this which likewise says what I've been saying:
https://www.opinium.co.uk/labour-approach-brexit-keep-options-open/
aggi
Oliver Schick
For Labour, 'Brexit' is a political red herring that would only have a strong impact on their vote if it could be set up as a strong dividing issue between the main parties, e.g. if Labour conference backed a referendum re-run. That would be a mistake. As I said, you're in a small minority in changing your Labour-voting behaviour because of Labour 'respecting' the referendum result--I'm certain very few people will do this. There have probably been studies, although I can't actively remember them. Most people would vote Labour because of positive policies/their manifesto/because Labour seem genuine about ending the long period of 'same old, same old'.
As I said, the last thing I expect Labour to do should they win a general election would be to rush ahead with 'Brexit'. They'd buy time and write a different story. There's no reason to worry about a headlong plunge into it or falling tax receipts. As they would undoubtedly start work on tax evasion and avoidance immediately, it's rather more likely that tax collecting would be beefed up and more effective.
If a Tory candidate openly backed 'Remain' now (e.g., a re-run referendum), this would damage the Tory vote and deliver Labour a win. No Tory would do this, not even Philip Hammond (who won't be the candidate), as there are far more Tory voters who believe in 'Brexit'. And I know you don't mean it literally, but it is, of course, nonsense to suggest Corbyn might lose his deposit.
Still, a week's a long time in politics, etc.