• I'm reading Robert Peston's book WTF at the moment. He makes a strong argument that while we remainers spend a lot of time railing against the retired home-owning euro-sceptic gammons, we shouldn't bother, a) because they'll never change their mind, and b) because loud as they are, they didn't win Brexit on their own. He makes the point that Brexit would never have reached 52% were it not for the gammons forming an unlikely voting bloc with those at the bottom of society, i.e.

    • people on zero-hours contracts
    • people whose regular jobs have been automated
    • people made to move out of their homes because of the bedroom tax
    • people otherwise affected by austerity
    • people for whom their areas have become unrecognisable too quickly (I'm from Dagenham, I've seen this first hand)
    • broadly speaking, people who were angry, didn't think things could get any worse, and wanted to give Cameron and Osborne, those posh twats, a poke in the eye

    While I don't give a monkeys about offending gammons, I do worry that if we manage to reverse Brexit without addressing the concerns of this latter group of people, we'll just end up with the same anger coming out in other ways.

  • I do worry that if we manage to reverse Brexit without addressing the concerns of this latter group of people, we'll just end up with the same anger coming out in other ways.

    I think that's going to happen even if we don't reverse Brexit. Brexit certainly isn't going improve things for them. But I agree that if Brexit does get stopped it ideally needs to be through another ref or a general election if there is a hope of reducing the division it's already created.

    My current best case outcome is something like this:

    March 2019:
    UK: Shit shit shit we still haven't got a deal and run out of time, we are about to crash out, ground planes etc. Eu, you have got to give us an extension of A50 for all our sakes

    EU: Ok then, but this isn't a license to fuck around for another two years. Tell us how long you need to agree a deal with us or decide on no deal, cost and plan for it, and get the day 1 infrastructure sorted. We will extend once by the amount of time you ask for, on the condition that between deciding, costing and planning, and actually starting work, there is a milestone where you have another referendum to decide between the fully fleshed out Leave proposal and remaining in the EU.

  • Last point is true, didn't get how much the EU helped whilst being screwed for years by the Tories.

  • I think a lot of this is ignored. If you look at the most deprived boroughs they pretty much all voted Leave. They're not all full of comfortable, retired home-owners (or if they do own a home it's worth £50k).

    A lot of these people are still pro-Brexit, there hasn't been a seismic shift in opinion. If Brexit is overturned by a narrow margin (which looks like a possible scenario) but these people are ignored there are going to be a lot of very pissed off people.

    There'd be a pretty good chance of UKIP getting enough seats to actually directly influence policy at the next election for instance.

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