Owning your own home

There are also some wider considerations such as the potential for house prices to fall (it strikes us as likely with Brexit?)

Also interested in people's thoughts on this, as I'm going to need to move in the next year.

as first time buyers wouldn't you qualify for the stamp duty cut if you were buying something yourself? If so, that's a saving you'd lose.

Also, if you go though with it, it would be worth considering/discussing what you do if house prices went down, and you were forced to sell (or buy your sister out). Would you just split the negative equity 50/50? etc

Also interested in people's thoughts on this, as I'm going to need to move in the next year.

If Brexit happens I'd say it's a nailed on certainty. I'd lose out on equity for the deposit as my current flat would devalue, but I'd be hoping that the place I'd want to buy might take an equal (in terms of %) hit, and my salary, relative to the mortgage value, would be higher (whilst staying the same, as it were).

I'd say a bad brexit is likely to devalue high value properties but I'm not sure how much impact it will have outside of London and a few other places.

A lot of places haven't had the price rises that London has had so a 50% drop in London (although I don't think it will be anywhere near that severe) will probably be matched by 5% in other places.

However, regardless of the brexit impact, the high demand areas still won't have enough properties so I think that will mitigate any hefty price decrease.

Ultimately, if you're willing to live in a place for 5 years plus I wouldn't be worried about buying as you'll probably be able to ride out any disruption. If you're thinking it's only going to be short term then it could be an issue.

London will take a 10-20% hit. Everyelse 5-10%

I think London is easily down 10+% from peak already in more expensive areas. But what’s more worrying is transaction volumes have cratered. And that’s before any actual impacts from leaving.

A good time to be up-sizing if you have OK job security, but which industries are truly protected from the current most likely Brexit outcome?

Anyone recommend a solicitor for changing names on deeds? SE6

bump

It looks like I’ll have to delay my buying plan once again... ☹️

I'd recommend trying to avoid this split ownership thing, even in family. Just too much can go wrong.

And you can't negotiate effectively on the price you pay.

Re: Brexit.
This is based on a huge number of assumptions and opinions of people much more involved in the property game than I am/ want to be.

-Scenario A:
London:
Price drops in high end >> Price Drops in Mid-range >>>> Price drops in Low-end.
-Investors lose confidence in London as "safe"- high end floods.

• Mid-range- people pull homes off market in response, move to increase rent % throughout London
  -Low-range- similar market conditions as now.
  
  

Land:
-Big, wide ranging price drops. Farms aggregate- and become less family owned.

Cities out of London:
-Similar pattern to London

-Scenario B:
Government initiates 'economy- stabilising' measures by either increasing openness to international or local investors- stabilising the market in London, in an entirely London-centric effect.
Relatively small price drops in London, again more likely to hit at higher priced properties, significant price drops in other cities +land

Given current government- I suspect B is quite likely.

If we are playing what-if, however, I can’t see scenario B playing out if the government have to impose capital controls to stop money leaving the U.K.

No use buying an asset you can’t sell.

The UK is not going to impose capital controls. We didn't do that in 2008 when the entire economy imploded.

Instead the pound will simply collapse in value in a repeat of 2016 and we will all pay (a lot) more for anything imported.

Doomsexual®

We didn't do that in 2008 when the entire economy imploded.

It wasn't just us, then.

Yep, defo, lots of places I looked at dropped 50-70k before they sold and some are still kicking about.

I'm talking another 10-20%. I'm prob going to end up in negative equity but I will just live in it.

Sold then?

Who does the reports on actual sold prices (rather than asking)? Could be interesting reading, especially a comparison with asking.

Who does the reports on actual sold prices (rather than asking)?

Many people. The actual sale prices are recorded at the Land Registry.

Type any street name / postcode into this and you’ll see the sold prices.

https://houseprices.io

Not sure how quickly it’s updated but seems to have transactions going up to spring 2018 for streets i’ve looked at.

Scenario B is the alternative to capital controls to achieve the same thing - either you prevent money leaving or use fiscal policy to attract new money. I can understand why the latter is more attractive when facing a balance of payments crisis.

But what’s the outcome if you maintain the GBP value of an asset, but the value of GBP is depreciating? You either deal with the loss and hope to return to profit over the (possibly very) long term, or you move out of that asset.

=Scenario B might be a handy period to liquidise your assets and scarper.

If you attract foreign capital flows you prop up GBP... for a while. Greater fool theory suggests scenario B is a good time to liquidate and invest in short GBP exposure (FTSE100?)

You take that American job and watch your income relative to your asset purchase costs rocket.

You send food parcels to the squirrel eating friends and family back home.

squirrel eating

Always knew moving next to (municipal) golf course would pay off long term.

Given that I'm days away from pouring all my savings into a house in London, I'm trying hard to stay optimistic about house prices. I recognise that there are plenty of reasons to be fearful, but here are my reasons for optimism...

1. What really screws the property market is uncertainty. There is loads of uncertainty at the moment, hence the very slow market, hence the price drops. Once Brexit happens, the economy will probably not totally implode, and after a year or two, things will have settled down one way or another, uncertainty will start to dissipate and the market will pick up again.

2. Fundamentally, the housing market is about supply and demand, because everyone needs somewhere to live. Given that the government is likely to miss housebuilding targets for 2022 by anywhere upwards of 50,000 homes (possibly much more), demand will almost certainly continue to outstrip supply. A LOT of people need to move out of London before there is a surplus of houses and therefore a massive drop in demand.

3. If anywhere in the UK is going to be insulated from the impact of Brexit, it is likely to be London. It seems unlikely that vast numbers of people are going to flood out of London, buying houses in the provinces instead.

4. As the saying goes: property gets sick but it never dies. And the London property market has been a solid investment for about 2,000 years. It may slip a little in the short term, but it's probably still a safer asset in the medium term than, say, Apple. Or Bitcoin. Or Foffa bicycles.

5. Interest rates are unlikely to rise dramatically over the next few years. At least according to recent noises from the Bank of England. While interest rates stay low(ish), mortgages are affordable, which keeps the housing market relatively buoyant.

6. Fuck it: this house is meant to be a nice place for me to live, not some kind of speculative investment.

That and you're paying off your own debt rather than paying off someone elses.

Our flat is worth about 20k less than we paid for it two years ago but we would have paid 24k in rent over that period in our old place.