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@inappropriate_bike
The deeper you are into the race a routing error should make less difference in terms of time. (Which isn't to say it'll fuck your head up less.)
Early on:
20kph on tarmac vs 5kph walking
45 mins lost per 5km of goat track if both are the same length
30 mins lost per 5km of goat track if the goat track is half the distance of the road route
Later:
15kph climbing on tarmac vs 5kph walking
40 mins lost per 5km of goat track if both are the same length
20 mins lost per 5km of goat track if the goat track is half the distance of the road route