• In many ways it is looking like a repeat of last year, with @skinny taking longer rests but covering the distance in less riding time to overhaul Bjorn between CP2 and CP3.

    But what is different is that Bjorn actually has a faster riding speed this year: 21.1km/h vs 20.3 for Skinny. That is because Skinny took the same (hilly) route through the Ardennes that he took last year while Bjorn took a longer but flatter route.

    So, without doing detailed digging on how quickly they have each covered the same bits of ground, it's probably too early to say that Skinny can definitely overhaul Bjorn - although I won't be betting against it!

    With Berndt only 7km behind Skinny it's not yet a two-horse race. A couple of key questions on whether he can be a contender:

    • Bjorn has beaten him in the last couple of TAWs - but Bjorn is all time PBP record holder so very good at shorter distances, but he faded after Skinny passed him last year.
    • Berndt has always struggled in the heat before so can he stay the distance? If so, might he be relatively better at longer distances than Bjorn?
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