Tour De France 2018

Sagan tweeted that tomorrow will be one of the hardest stages of the race. I can see it just being smashed apart and lots of small groups all over the road. Am I being optimistic?

It's official now: Lappartient calling on Brailsford to stop trashing French fans, saying "there are not only French fans along the road, he's pouring oil on the fire just when everyone's trying to keep emotions at bay"

No, it's totally gonna be totally mental. Totally. First climb is akin to alpe d'huez, last climb is worse than alpe d'huez.

^^He didn't tell Hinault to shut his trap when he came out with a load of ill-informed, inflammatory bollocks though did he? Or the French newspapers.

If Froome is going to go on a long one he will need Sky staff all along the route as he had for his Giro escape. Look out for people in hi-viz hiding in the bushes so as not to give the game away.

bookies:

froome 2/1
thomas 7/2
dumoulin 11/1
landa 11/1
roglic & quintana 14/1
bardet 16/1
etc

So the bookies agree. Kinda. Though 2/1 is mighty short.

Is that just tomorrow or GC?

If GC, I reckon that should be 3/1, even if GT Yates his way out of the running.

Yeah. The mindset must be something along the lines of "I'd rather die than lose this stage"

Apparently he sat up shortly after passing Yates because he didn't feel good about taking advantage of a crash but his DS gave orders to get on with it.

Yates might have been relieved by that.

And it sounded like he thought it was Simon Yates :)

If the UCI cannot keep medical information confidential, why should he keep his thoughts confidential? He seems to have it in for the ASO and the UCI at the moment and rightly so. People are already booing Sky, what does he have to lose? If a fan does something silly, the ASO and UCI will get hammered. Are they going to blame his comments and walk away? I suspect DB is enjoying the shit out of this.

That's just tomorrow's stage.

The famously balanced Gaurdian in action :)

FWIW, I think Sky might have a bigger staff than other teams. But getting everyone involved in handing out musettes and comprehensively covering the course seems to be a tactic they've invented and there's no recognition of that.

How are they doing the time cut tomorrow? Same as normal?

If, that's a big if, everything stays as is after tomorrow's stage, do Sky throw everything behind GT?

After Geraint and Froome, Sky have Bernal down in 23rd, then Kwia and Pouels in 59th and 65th.

Just makes me think even more that Froome will go on the attack whilst Bernal and the others join up with Geraint.

Valverde will likely go early too, along with Kruijswick and maybe someone like Zakarin or Fuglslang trying to tag along.

I get it that it's dangerous in terms of causing a crash

Then you understand why it’s not tolerated. End of.

Do you say the same things about Wikileaks? I could be wrong but it was leaked as the AAF came under Cookson's watch and there were then internal moves at the UCI to change the salbutamol test levels which on the surface seemed like moving the goalposts. How do you stop concerned employees leaking?

The ASO seem to have been doing what they can to calm things, down to telling fans that they'll get three years in jail and a fine for fucking with the riders. You can't blame them for pushing for a decision pre-tour, and if Sky had communicated with them better about getting the results the week prior you can reasonably assume they wouldn't have publicly blocked Froome.

And how is Lapartient responsible for what Hinault says? The guy's not his employee, and he's retired. He can pretty much say whatever he likes with impunity, mores the pity.

Lots of fault with UCI processes but Brailsford turning it into Team GB vs the World isn't helping matters.

Anyway. Tomorrow. Looking at the odds, do you think the bookies have accounted for Thomas falling over and taking Froome out with him? You wouldn't think it is the safest wheel to follow...

It would be ridiculous not to. Flat on Thursday, downhill finish on Friday and TT on Saturday. At the absolute outside they call Froome a free agent and he can go as long as it doesn't compromise GT. Actually I suspect that's the orders for tomorrow anyway.

Can't do that, risks dragging everyone past GT and taking him off the podium while handing the yellow to someone else.
Better strategy might be Froome and GT to cover attacks on climb 1 while Bernal and Kwia TT up and set pace. Pouels and Castro to chase to get in for duty on the second climb. Bernal and Kwia to resume on climb 3.

This all depends on nobody pulling a full on Tony Martin, for which I nominate Dan Martin who might be happier with a stage win over a 10th.

I think a big question is what is going to happen with the non-GC riders. The polka dotters will cause upset on at least climb 1 by assisting anyone who takes their wheel. Sprinters and all the spares will hopefully hold on to the off line side and leave GC and doms to fight unhindered.

SirBradofWiggo was saying no-one liked being on Froome's wheel as he was so herky-jerky on the bike so Geraint would always be in front of him if he could but not because drafting

Froome was riding wobbling ahead of Thomas for today’s stage (or at least the bits I managed to see).

Yeah, it might be the better strategy, but I'm taking into account the temptation of 5 Tour wins corrupting the evil soul of Froome :)

It could be chaos waiting for Kwia and Pouels. The Top 30 will be in lines across the road. And there will be lots of people wanting to move up for different reasons - the team classification between Behrain and Movistar, the young rider classification with Guillame and LaTour, the Moutains with Barguil surely attacking from the off and Alaphillipe chasing him from behind.

God I can't wait.

I think anyone expecting fireworks tomorrow is going to be sorely disappointed. That last climb is tough, no-one is going to go eyeballs out on the Peyresourde. There might be some minor skirmishes, but it’ll soon settle down.