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I would go for whichever of the front four, or five, has slept the most, hence has ridden fastest and had most recovery.
I think I agree, the front four seem to be pulling out a lead but from the race flow I think it's still too early to see who has the best distance/sleep ratio. That said, MR certainly seems to have had the least sleep.
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I'd agree with that, they're starting to open a gap now. Once these races get established there isn't usually too much passing. They might not all finish but they probably won't all blow up either.
I'm on my phone so can't see clearly, but I would go for whichever of the front four, or five, has slept the most, hence has ridden fastest and had most recovery.