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Froome is a far superior climber to Dumoulin, especially in the third week of a GT. A lot of pundits seem to have forgotten that Dumoulin shed the best part of 4 minutes to the likes of Pinot, Quintana and Nibali in the final week last year, although he had a time trial as a buffer as the final stage so could afford to lose some time. He doesn't have that luxury this year.
Hasn't had an AAF looming over his head before and I think the fall was much worse than let on as well. Etna will be interesting.