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You’re right, there’s no mention of resident grace period any more, so 2021 is most likely.
From my basic survey of cars on the road, I really don’t see it making much difference. The majority of private cars are already low emissions because they’re relatively new, taxing older cars will barely make a dent. On one hand they’re trying to say it’s such a big problem that they need to reduce it to reduce pollution but then in the same breath they’re trying to say not that many residents will be affected. Which is it?
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Neither. It's all just a load of spintastic bollocks, as is evident from this sentence from the press release:
"The Mayor of London today launched a new public consultation on the next phase of his hard-hitting plans to tackle London's toxic air, reduce filthy emissions and protect the public from harmful pollution by expanding the Ultra-Low Emission Zone (ULEZ)."
Good PR, fuck all practical benefit. Double win.
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Both depending who you're pitching ;)
The big thing is applies to commercial vehicles though (except taxis). That means companies are going to be choosing different engines when they renew their vehicles - at this point electric or hybrid ones. That will make a difference.
The taxi carve out was to be expected, but what I don't understand though is why they weren't given a grace period too. Ie by 20xx only black cabs made betwen 19xx-20xx will be allowed to be non-electric / hybrid. Toyota have had hybrids for 20yrs now. Buses are hybrid. No reason for diesel taxis to still be manufactured.
Regarding ULEZ/LEZ my understanding is that the north south circular extension in 2020 is LEZ not ULEZ and only applies to commercial vehicles. However the residents extensions have been denied.
Everything seems subject to change and I am not sure what the latest information is.