Right - and he is on the record that MSR is his early season target. Plus he goes well in bad weather, and has repeatedly proven his ability to win two or three up sprints at the end of long, hard classics.
He said in a recent interview he would have a go at an attack though, and have a beer or wine or two on the night before the race because it is OK with the QS team bosses - as opposed to those at BMC ;)
I don't gamble, but you can get Gilbert at 100-1. That seems fairly generous.