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frankenbike

re. Tesla and space junk discussion a few days ago.

We calculate a dynamical half-life of the Tesla of approximately 15 Myr, with some 22%, 12% and 12% of Roadster orbit realizations impacting the Earth, Venus, and the Sun within one half-life, respectively. Because the eccentricities and inclinations in our ensemble increase over time due to mean-motion and secular resonances, the impact rates with the terrestrial planets decrease beyond a few million years, whereas the impact rate on the Sun remains roughly constant.

i.e. there's a 22% chance of that Tesla hitting Earth within the next 15 million years, with the chance getting smaller as time goes on. Hence the nonchalance of various astronomy people regarding space junk.

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mmccarthy in reply to @frankenbike

Unfortunately, like many things, trying to explain this to people in a logical manner rarely works.

Last time it was brought up it was suggested that the final stage powering the Tesla should've had enough fuel to direct it into the sun to prevent it from causing any damage...

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