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MicroDosed™
TGR
If that is true the next most likely explanation is your calorie expenditure is overestimated.
There's also discrepancies with measured calories and actual but then we're into more than error margins. There was an segment on calorie estimation being off on Trust Me I'm a Doctor or one of the similar Health/Eating shows recently, that touched on this:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/science-reveals-why-calorie-counts-are-all-wrong/ but also how most people underestimate because they simply forget foods or inaccurately measure (sorry, estimate) portions.
I can't remember the show but they discussed various differences in estimated vs. useable calories: https://theconversation.com/why-most-food-labels-are-wrong-about-calories-35081
Then next most likely is your BMR estimate is wrong.