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If you're actually in calorie deficit you will lose weight.
I weigh/ scan every morsel and eat very little processed meals/ food.
No measure of body fat used
MicroDosed™-
If that is true the next most likely explanation is your calorie expenditure is overestimated.
There's also discrepancies with measured calories and actual but then we're into more than error margins. There was an segment on calorie estimation being off on Trust Me I'm a Doctor or one of the similar Health/Eating shows recently, that touched on this:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/science-reveals-why-calorie-counts-are-all-wrong/ but also how most people underestimate because they simply forget foods or inaccurately measure (sorry, estimate) portions.I can't remember the show but they discussed various differences in estimated vs. useable calories: https://theconversation.com/why-most-food-labels-are-wrong-about-calories-35081
Then next most likely is your BMR estimate is wrong.
hippy
If you're actually in calorie deficit you will lose weight.
So either your baseline calorie use is wrong or like most people, your intake is underestimated.
I guess there could also be measurement error, ie. weighing at different hydration states, pre/post shits, after big endurance rides. Do you measure body fat %?