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  • •

    If May stays then we get the hardest of hard Brexits, i.e. no deal at all, cliff-edge exit.

    I don't think May is a no kind of deal gal.

    Or are you thinking she's lubing Fox, Davis and BoJo up to take the full force of the failure?

    I'm hoping for Hammond. 1) bc I have £s on it, and 2) because he might limit the catastrophe of Brexit for a while.

  • •

    I don't think May is a no kind of deal gal.

    Or are you thinking she's lubing Fox, Davis and BoJo up to take the full force of the failure?

    I'm hoping for Hammond. 1) bc I have £s on it, and 2) because he might limit the catastrophe of Brexit for a while.

    To get a deal she must make three parties happy:

    • The EU negotiating team
    • The Irish
    • The DUP, and her own party

    What does this mean? It means that we either commit to (in all but name) staying in the EU, or we have a hard border between the UK and the EU - which is either going to go between NI and I, or a theoretical line drawn along the middle of the Irish Sea.

    May has ruled out the option of staying in the EU - customs union, FoM, ECJ, all gone - so we now have two options:

    • Hard land border between Northern Ireland and Ireland
    • Hard sea border between the Island of Ireland and the rest of the UK

    And she has to get both the DUP and the Irish to agree to it.

    Which one of those two options will May be able to get both the DUP and the Irish government to agree to back?

  • •

    You giving too much credit, they'll try and do nothing. My thinking at the moment is that there will be a transition process to buy time.

    The aim will be to frame this as having our cake and eating it - "we are definitely leaving and when we do we will have everything, but there is a lot to do... Etc..."

    If possible as the process continues the aim will be to out maneuver the Brexshitstirrers and use them as fall guys.

  • •

    Would an option be to have the hard border on goods on land and the hard border on people in the sea?
    You’d need some kind of personal or local business allowance but it would still prevent large scale smuggling etc.

    Edit: or you know, just cancel Brexit and stop being bellends.

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