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Ok but even without making not cycling to work illegal (seat belt analogy) policy can obvs influence the choices people make. For instance, make it more expensive to drive cars and easier/cheaper to cycle. It's quite an oil tanker to turn around (literally) society wise as everything is designed for cars but look at the smoking analogy. Cigarettes are expensive and not allowed in very many places anymore so a smaller proportion of people smoke than 20 years ago.
russmeyer-
You're right about the oil tanker--these policies are not being pursued because the fact it's being allowed to depend on individual choices makes it seem like turning around an oil tanker.
I think the campaigns on smoking would be very interesting to study, and I don't know much about them, but as far as I'm aware the main argument that cut through was about lung cancer (if anyone knows more please correct me). You can't make such an encapsulated point with 'obesity', 'lack of physical activity', 'shorter lifespan'--everybody fears cancer but the other points exercise (no pun intended) people a lot less.
Oliver Schick
I should have said (and meant) in respect of cycling. I don't know how it works with these other areas, although I don't think that seat belts are a good example given that there is legislation enforcing their use. There, progress went evidence->policy->law, which is really how it should go, providing the evidence is any good (and the evidence in favour of seat belts has been criticised very strongly by John Adams at least). However, you can't force people to cycle by law, so that progression doesn't work. It's left to individual choice and the extent to which individuals are capable of making decisions on the basis of complex/abstract evidence in the face of other, more powerful influences. I've read dozens of studies on the health benefits of cycling, I know plenty of people who work in the field of public health, etc., and in my experience the actual impact of this (important) work on cycling is negligible. I have various views on why that is, but they take a while to explain.