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That looks pretty tight, here is what me and a mate have managed so far, using more seatpost does seem to help for sure, first adventure was on MTB in the Cairngorms, got a bit of plastic sheeting to double up as a mud guard and protect the bag from a bouncy rear, second adventure on the road bikes, tighter packing that time, need to get out more, excuse the wierdo with the beardo!
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All a bit stashed away at the moment so hard to get pics. I didn't do anything too precise. Just cut some flexible relatively thin plastic into a liner kind of shape and put it in the bag so it supports the bottom side. The different strap is just an obvious upgrade I think. It's all about tension with these things and a proper clasp is loads easier to get tight.
Mine also tends to be more up the seatpost than stuck way out the back. The further past the back of saddle it goes, the more likely its going to swing IME.
Here it is in setup mode - excuse the straps that need tucking away...