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Pretty sure the aero is a big deal. Especially over those kind of distances. I use a carradice style saddle bag and you do feel the drag with that compared to a saddle pack or nowt.
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Some n=1 testing in an article a while ago suggested you'd lose ~15mins every 100km. Pretty significant over the course of TCR.
Edit: article here
Tonts
Ptown
@Squaredisk
Uneducated comment here, but sometimes all those odd shaped apidura bags look far more complicated than sticking on a rear rack with a pannier. Is the aero benefit really that much or is there an element of fashion going on?