General Election June 2017

People have tended to vote right-wing as a way of preserving the wealth that they have accumulated (like a house, say), but seeing as the gig economy, student loans, and the lack of housing to buy or rent has fucked up anyone under 35, Boris is going to have to work hard to make voting Tory appealable.

Ah, that was a rumour. Didn't happen before we left.

I'm watching the Question Time from yesterday, Isabel Oakshott is such an awful person.

Williamson... That would be a top orange man name ;)

And so it begins, May's Chief of Staff Nick Timothy has just "resigned"

Timothy and Hill have both resigned apparently.

Meanwhile Theresa May is busy re-arranging the deckchairs on HMS Titanic....

I'm watching the Question Time from yesterday, Isabel Oakshott is such an awful person.

yup an absolute witch

will finally wake up

Seems unlikely unfortunately

Presented with a list of reasons which might have been behind their vote, Labour, Lib Dem and SNP voters said the most important factor had been that they trusted the motives of the party they chose; next, that they had preferred that party’s promises. Conservative voters had different priorities: their most important reason was thinking the party or its leader would do a better job of negotiating Brexit; followed by the belief that Theresa May would be the best Prime Minister.

From:
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/06/result-happen-post-vote-survey/

Now TM's advisors have gone, and taken responsibility for it all, I guess Theresa's gone back to being blameless and has a clean slate. Or so she hopes.

It's all very well two useless twats who alienated everyone throwing themselves under the bus, but what about the most senior and useless twat of all who thought it was a good idea to hire them in the first place, and then let them advise her on her policies and approach, and then keep them in place?

Oeer hopefully the Tory party explodes... Still, the it seems half of the UK is in brexit denial vote if that Lord Ashcroft poll is representative.

Have we done the £425k DUP Brexit donation in this thread?

Yes.

Most recommendations will be more strongly pro labour now... Evidence shows that they can win and that the lib Dems aren't recovering.

And features we'd missed out on due to not having enough time, like the student comparison, will be added.

Yep few pages back.

And the guy [Jeffrey Donaldson] who "knows nothing" about it...worked with Enoch Powell when he got kicked out of the Tories for going undeniably fascist. It's proudly on the DUP site too O_o

Most recommendations will be more strongly pro labour now...

Yes, like in Cambridge where you said to vote for the Lib Dems, as a vote for Labour would let the Conservatives in.

Labour got a 12,600 majority.

I'm watching the Question Time from yesterday, Isabel Oakshott is such an awful person.

Pound shop Hopkins

Tactical2017 said to vote LD there

It's easy to say this with hindsight but tactical2017 gave too much weighting to the remain vote per constituency (which would bias their suggestion towards LibDem rather than Labour). This is something I'm sure they'll take into account of their next suggestions if there's another election soon.

In the vast majority of constituencies (of the 632 in GB) their suggestion won or came second behind the Tories.

But there were 58 constituencies where they suggested a LibDem vote that ended up coming 3rd (and so another non-Tory party was second or won). I haven't looked at these in detail but I'm guessing that these were high remain areas where they thought the voters would be shift to LibDem based on their intent to remain rather than Labour's commitment to continue with Brexit.

(Again I'll repeat that the data show that their suggestions never split the vote to prevent another party winning. In these 58 constituencies the votes for the tactical2017 recommendation would not have helped the other party overcome the Tory majority.)

The Lib Dems got hammered more than I thought they would. Which is good because they're not a real party.

I think she annoys me more because I went to school with a number of people who behave the same and know exactly the type of person she is. Just so conceited.

I doubt it.

It depends how quickly it comes about.

If they have time to sort themselves out and do some proper research on some (new) policies then they could shore themselves up again. They'd have to distance themselves from this recent DUP nonsense as that would be excellent material for the opposition parties.

If they're forced into another quick election then there might not be time to do this and Labour can pounce on them (which they really haven't so far).

@Velocio I'm assuming a lot of the time you could lookup the IP address of a visitor and determine if they're visiting from a university campus range.

Maybe use that to make the prompt for the home and university postcode more prominent?

Or even include the university town suggestion based on the campus IP if they've only entered a home address

It's easy to say this with hindsight

Nope, I actively recommended against a LD vote in this seat for this precise reason.
This seat was a tory lock. Tactical recommendations should acknowledge this and make no recommendation.
This is important as I feel that tactical voting will become more prevalent. In a lost cause a vote for is much more powerful than a vote against.

But Hopkins is just a pound shop Lord Haw-Haw.

True.

But no data existed saying that a swing to the left was occurring. Lots of opinion (in all directions), but no data.

Labour had not proven their ability to get votes in 2015 when Lib Dems were shedding them. And it was not known whether the Lib Dem collapse was permanent or just a protest vote.

Importantly: we did not split the vote, Tories did not benefit from us, where we were not correct either it didn't matter at all (Tory safe seat) our Labour won.

I feel great about all our recommendations, they were the best we could make given data.

Now we have more data, and a swing to the left has been proven, and Lib Dems did not gain, and youth are voting... It will be different. Far more labour recommendations.

The site is static. It's the only way to serve the numbers we did... To put everything in cache.

So that would not be an easy thing to do. Also wouldn't really be that accurate given student dorms are everywhere nowadays and run by private companies who aren't on the uni networks

Her braying condescension about criticising the mail etc didn't seem backed up by an awareness of her own cliched attack lines.