General Election June 2017

Corbo!

Remind me again what's the rule ? Does a Tory voter die every time you say .....Corbo!

Time handles that.

We did a good thing.

Good to have it verified

You and the team did an amazing thing.

What time are people getting there? I might come down for one.

So, who are the terrorist sympathisers again

1 Attachment

6:30, 7ish, I don't know, it's on Facebook, there's every possible there's 6 people or 600 people.

So, with a working 'Government' majority of 2, Ken Clarke is suddenly in a position to cause no end of trouble ...

Not really. The majority isn't the number of MPs over 326, it's the difference between the Government MPs and the opposition MPs with a few other bits to take into consideration (the numbers change each year due to Sinn Fein):-

650 (seats) - 1 (Speaker) and 7 (Sinn Fein who don't sit in parliament ever) = 642

642 - 318 (Tories) - 10 (DUP) = 314 possible opposition

So the effective majority is 328 - 314 = 14

So they could survive 6 MPs voting against the party (making it 322 to 320). A 7th would tie it 321 to 321 in which case the Speaker would generally vote for the status quo (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speaker_Denison%27s_rule) so this needs to be avoided.

Labour's 1997 landslide of 418 MPs (out of 659) was (strict) majority of 179 (including the speaker).

659 - 2 (Sinn Fein) = 657

657 - 418 = 239 opposition

418 - 239 = 179 majority

Well, that was meant as more of a joke. :)

Is there any analysis of what the result might have looked like if it had happened after the constituency border changes that are planned?

I was slightly wrong anyway as I used the BBC figure of 318 Tories, which includes the Speaker (and then excluded him elsewhere).

642 - 317 (Tories) - 10 (DUP) = 315 possible opposition

Effective majority is 327 - 315 = 12

That's a very interesting question.

Interesting point raised elsewhere, since the Good Friday agreement neither Labour or the Conservatives have taken sides in Northern Ireland to ensure the peace is kept. May has just ended that, solely to further her own ambitions.

She really is an utterly loathsome PM. I hope she's gone by the Autumn.

Yes, Jonathan Powell on that:

I do think it’s a mistake to go into government with the “support of our friends” in the DUP. Even John Major avoided doing that and the reason he avoided that is the peace process is based on a balance that the British government has made it clear it is neutral in Northern Ireland, it doesn’t take sides. Once you have their support, you are no longer neutral.

It matters for two big reasons. First, we haven’t managed to get the executive back up and running in Northern Ireland because of divisions between the two sides. The British government were trying to mediate between the two sides to get an administration up and running again and of course now it can’t possibly have that role of mediating.

And secondly I think it’s a mistake because one of the big issues in the Brexit negotiations is the border between north and south. Now the DUP is a minority in its view about Brexit, it’s in favour of Brexit. This is going to be a very real problem.

Whatever you put on a piece of paper, you’re living there with a minority government. That’s dependent on the DUP. You get to a crucial issue and then they say: “Remember what we want in terms of talks in Northern Ireland,” and the government has a choice. Do they say: “We’re not giving you that. We’ll let the government collapse,” or do they just bend a little on that issue – it’s just one small issue, it doesn’t matter? But beyond that, the government can’t possibly be seen as neutral on Northern Ireland now if it puts itself at the mercy of the DUP.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/jun/09/election-2017-theresa-may-speaks-outside-downing-street-after-shock-result-hunh-parliament-live?page=with:block-593ab932e4b0bdd87e2f50d1#block-593ab932e4b0bdd87e2f50d1

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/09/from-climate-denial-to-abortion-heres-six-dup-policies-you-should-know-about

Some more reading: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/09/world/europe/uk-election-brexit-eu.html

Can anyone link to an article explaining DUP links to terrorists? All I can find is that the UDA endorse them, which is hardly surprising. Is there evidence of two way traffic behind the scenes? I'm entirely ignorant of NI politics.

(Obviously there are plenty of other reasons to dislike them apart from terrorism, I just want to inform myself)

@Greenbank

Don't forget Kensington, yet to declare.

From https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/adam-ramsay/so-who-are-dup

Theresa May's new partners in government have strong historical links with Loyalist paramilitary groups. Specifically, the terrorist group Ulster Resistance was founded by a collection of people who went on to be prominent DUP politicians. Peter Robinson, for example, who was DUP leader and Northern Ireland’s first minister until last year, was an active member of Ulster Resistance. The group’s activities included collaborating with other terrorist groups including the Ulster Volunteer Force, to smuggle arms into the UK, such as RPG rocket launchers.

Those figures assume Kensington is going to Labour (based on the comments about the Tories requesting recount after recount and, allegedly, conceding).

(The tactical2017 suggestion was for Labour so they will be "correct" on that one regardless of the outcome.)

"The DUP subsequently claimed that they severed their links with the group in 1987."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulster_Resistance

There's evidence of dodgy money dealing...eg DUP-led groups that are still active in crime (cos everyone has a past over here...)

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/sunday-life/government-gave-udalinked-groups-5-million-of-taxpayers-money-35121805.html

NOW some people with a horrid past have reformed. But Dee Stitt is still rumored to be active.

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/sunday-life/uda-thugs-hounded-tragic-belfast-teen-nathan-ritchie-to-his-death-35136130.html

Not sure how I missed that, thank you.

And East Belfast has a shitload of racism because the UDA doesn't pull in the scumbags over there.

My local area had that problem 10 years ago and wised the bap up (though the UVF/UDA are still active, they haven't gone away) but in East Belfast it's a big problem.

There are reformed ex paramilitaries that have left that all behind (see the Shankill who actively helped against anti polish xenophobia and groups in West Belfast) again many people have a past here.

But unless the DUP really cuts all ties this is a really really unwise choice from May.

See, it's not even the end of the day and the light being shone on the DUP is beginning to make people uncomfortable.

What are the odds on another election by the autumn?