General Election June 2017

very polarised between urban and rural

Looks like lots of Tactical voting paid off

For all the negative campaigning about Corbyn and the IRA, this is the type of person that May will do deals with:

http://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2017/dup-chief-arlene-foster-met-uda-boss-days-after-loyalist-murder-in-bangor-35776873.html

For comparison.

On the right is population density.

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It looks scarier than it is because many rural constituencies cover a physically larger area.

Yeah but it was in the name of the union so they're not traitors or terrorists or anything.

So Lynton Crosby has been doing really well. Will he find work in this country again, or have people taken the hint yet that vile personal attacks, with racial undertones, don't really work?

A few people I know have questioned why Labour should celebrate despite finishing second.

Seven weeks ago Labour looked in danger of a wipeout. People were talking in terms of a majority of 125 or even more. The Liberals were set to clean up in London in Remain seats. Even my constituency was looking dangerous. The Labour Party was divided. Some were thinking about a new party. A centrist coalition. The Liberals were suggesting that they would lead it.

May, on the other hand had an unassailable lead. She saw an opportunity to capitalise at a time when such a lead could give her a mandate to do whatever she wanted. Her majority was going to be so big that she could ignore Parliament.

She ran a campaign, carefully avoiding debate or any statement of objectives. She wanted a blank cheque unhindered by promises

Her campaign focused on the weakness of her opponents. She received great support from the bulk of the press. One promise that she did make was to scrap Leverson.

There were two terrorist outrages during the campaign. Both times electioneering stopped but the press continued their attacks for her. They blamed the terrorism squarely on Labour and its leadership.

Abbott had a meltdown. May was able to capitalise on that.

Even on the eve of polling some reputable pollsters were giving her leads from between 40-100 seats. Some up to 125.

And yet Labour hit back and took away the mandate that she craved.

They don't have to deal with the shit storm of the next few months. Although they asked to form a government, she refused.

There will be another election soon. Only one MP has to die to wipe out her and her allies the DUP's majority. She can't risk that.

At the next election Labour will be able to push forward their momentum. The young vote, having voted, will vote again. Older voters are dropping off the perch.

The next campaign will be very different. No Abbott. A more unified Labour Party. A more damaged Tory party.

And so Labour might not have won but they have plenty to celebrate.

If we never see Nick Timothy again it will be too soon.

Lynton Crosby
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-mays-election-guru-lynton-10471574

Surely, 'twas ever thus,
until we had the sleaze-ridden Major adminstration,
and, even rural Tories knew it was time for a change.

A spreadsheet of all the results

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SGkPQqosDbVL9tSX_uMNaXPGiW2z02z2fchDezlyNss/edit#gid=0

Are the majority of Scottish MPs not still SNP? 35 out of 59?

SNP got 977,568
UKIP got 593,852 votes
Green got 524,604
DUP got 292,316

UKIP are hardly dead. They're just not properly represented becasue of our bad system.

DUP and SNP and very over represented!

But the DUP and SNP were only standing in a fraction of the constituencies (18 and 59 respectively).

It'd be much better to compare votes per constituency to seats.

DUP got 292316/18 = 16239 votes per constituency for 10
SNP got 977568/59 = 16568 votes per constituency
UKIP got 593852 votes in 375 (I think) constituencies = 1583 votes per constituency

Be interesting to see the figures for all of the parties (Tory, Labour, Lib Dem, PC, Green, etc) but I don't have the data on the number of constituencies they had candidates in.

If someone can point me to a dataset (csv, json, whatever) I can have a look. The Graun used to publish it reasonably quickly, or I might be able to find it on Wikidata... And a spreadsheet appears above, will get to it...

People who like people- Labour. People who like themselves- Tory

Remember when May promised to give parliament a say on Brexit? Awkward.

The chaos at Tory HQ is so intense that they are letting BBC5Live speculate about Ruth Davidson, an MSP, with no Westminster seat, as a potential Tory leader, with no 'spokespersonsaid' popping up with a refutation.

Any media outlet published a list of the the leave/remain inclinations of the new MP distribution at Westminster?
Talking head on C4 about 04.15 this morning, suggested there was probably a clear majority of MPs for Remain.

I think the shining of the light on the DUP will only be a good thing. Their outdated policies and vile personal views will become apparent and many will be repulsed by them. That will limit any influence they have.

We shouldn't forget that there are many in the Tory party who oppose Brexit, and many who are very pro Brexit. Those schisms will soon open, especially with a leader who is a lame duck. Then their wafer thin majority will become apparent.

Is no majority better than a bad majority?

I think I am in a minority in thinking Clegg is a good politician.

Nope. I've never understood why having to compromise on policies when entering into a coalition government is so hard to understand. Or such a bad thing.

Tim Farron has just given a great tribute to Nick Clegg.

Clegg is/was a bad politician,
as part of his PR proposal would have had an elected Upper Chamber with failed politicians getting a term of 15 years of snout/trough.
That on its own was enough for me to vote against his botched PR proposal.

On Nick Clegg: should the libdems go into a coalition with the Tories now? Answers to that question will go some way (but not all the way) to accessing the reputation he has.

The Libdems have gained from some tactical voting.
Any support of the Tories will wipe that out at the forthcoming election.