General Election June 2017

I agree. It seems very likely.

Hackney is the safest Labour seat in the country.

Hackney's actually composed of two safe Labour seats.

/pedantrycorner :)

Vote Tory (says The Times)

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/britain-s-future-7h6gp0785

(Not paywalled because obvs it's such an important message)

Meanwhile in Norn Ireland...

curious to hear what the "the press are just doing their job" lot from a few pages ago have to say about this.

It's the flip side of the coin. The risk you run when you have a press that isn't controlled by the state.

It is analogous to human rights or civil liberties. Allow totally unrestricted freedom and you risk civil disorder. Curtail them too much and you create a grim life within a system with almost no accountability.

curious to hear what the "the press are just doing their job" lot from a few pages ago have to say about this.

I'm sickened by it but I don't know what can be done about it without draconian censorship, which obviously I'd disagree with strongly.

It's not black and white though, you can have a regulated press that is still a free press, just like you can have a regulated marketplace. In fact regulated marketplaces work better, just as the press would if there was proper oversight.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/07/corbyn-supporters-hopes-remember-2015-polls-last-election-tory-majority

If by 'regulated' you mean 'pre-approval of articles', that's censorship.

Anything post-facto is just closing the door after the horse has bolted, and I don't think fines are going to dissuade the owners of the right wing tabs.

IMHO, of course.

If by 'regulated' you mean 'pre-approval of articles'

Well that went from 0 to 100 very quickly. Yeah sure, let's bring back public hanging for buggery too.

press that isn't controlled by the state.

sadly, it would appear that this is exactly where we are.

Its gonna be a Tory majority. Dark days indeed

@Oliver Schick
article gives 'conventional wisdom'... ends with 'never trust conventional wisdom' i'm more confused than when i started reading...!

press that isn't controlled by the state.

In what sense?

Why do people "court" Murdoch?

That's not what he said.

He said if you mean a) then it = x. If you mean b) then it = y.

i was being glib. my point being, the majority of headlines we're seeing today serve one party and one viewpoint and their goal is to disseminate as much unverifiable bullshit about the other guy as far and efficiently as possible, but i'm pretty sure we all knew that already.

i grew up in a country that had actual state controlled media and it wasn't anywhere near as toxic as what we're seeing here. then again maybe that was because dissent was usually met with indefinite imprisonment and possibly worse.

That's also not what I said.

Far enough.

The editors do seem like total fuckers and it's hard not to wish a Katey Hopkins threads worth of ills on them.

The breaking up of media empires might be a start. Forcing independence between media outlets, media providers and media infrastructure. Preventing funding from media outlets to political parties. Some practicable, some moon on a stick.

Or vice versa.

article gives 'conventional wisdom'... ends with 'never trust conventional wisdom'

That was what I liked about it. :)

Remember where you were on 7 May 2015? Remember how the final polls had the two main parties neck and neck, and then came that 10pm exit poll predicting Labour’s Scottish wipeout and putting the Tories just a few seats short of an overall majority?

On polls:

I mentioned this before, but worth repeating: weighting of (most) polls has been changed since 2015 (I think survation is still using its old model). Labour supporters are taken to be less likely to vote, and this is taken into consideration. This can have three impacts, ranked in what I think are probably the most likely scenarios:

1) Polls will be more accurate.
2) Polls will under estimate Labour support (youth does turn out).
3) Polls will once again over estimate Labour support (turn out is once again even lower than estimated).

What is important is how national support ends up being shared within individual constituencies.

May got booed and heckled about Police cuts while visiting Spitalfield market this morning.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-may-greeted-with-vote-labour-jeers-in-meat-market-visit-a3558831.html

(It was Smithfield, by the way.)

Yes, she only alludes to 'lax turnout models' without making going into them in detail, it's a useful reminder. I still have no idea what or whom to trust on this, though.

I do emotional hedge betting, where I bet money on the outcome I don't want, so there's a silver lining when the results are announced.