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you should be fine then. could even leave the insulated jacket and take armwarmers only. depends how fast you intend to be riding!
platypus-
Still considering leaving a sleeping bag and just taking the bivvy and mat - in which case the jacket will be used for sleeping too. I think either way, the insulated jacket will be coming as its pretty packable and its insurance in case of something going wrong - a mechanical stuck in the mountains, for example.
gillies
I have one of those rapha insulated jackets - definitely warm when wet. My jersey will also be (lightweight) merino