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  • That is actually the kind of complex flow of voting behaviour we've been modelling in https://www.tactical2017.com/

    UKIP is majority Tory, but it has been a vehicle for some Labour and Lib Dem voters to move to the Tories.

    This is more visible in the Northern seats in which Leave was a dominant force in the referendum (those areas where Leave represented more than 60% of the vote).

    Different rules seem to apply where Remain achieved 60%+ of the vote.

    Also worth mentioning that in those strong Leave seats... all London-centric ideas seem to break down. It's comparable to quantum physics, everything we know suddenly doesn't make sense and certain things seem unknowable :)

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