General Election June 2017

Whilst I agree with you, on your last point that lets the Tories in. And that is far worse.

The right have united, UKIP have given their weight to the Tories.

A lot of UKIP votes are going to Labour.

The single biggest thing that can stop the Tories is getting under 25s to vote in large numbers. Without that any tactical voting will fail.

Hatred of the Tories is a very motivating thing recently.

As well as huge support for policies and manifesto, and an ever growing respect and support for Corbyn as he gets more neutral airtime (despite him still trailing in the 'prime ministerial' polls).

A lot of UKIP votes are going to Labour.

Is there evidence for this? It would be silly to argue that no past-Ukip voters are voting Labour, but polls seem to show the collapse of Ukip support coinciding with the growth of Tory support.

I think Labour's growth in the polls is coming from all of the other parties. Ukip is a relatively small part of that.

That would be a charitable read that only a small % of the population hold.

If May hadn't fucked up so royally, Labour would have had far less of a bounce.

Until after the election it isn't going to be known whether the polls for Labour reflected a full on rebound or a dead cat bounce.

That would be a charitable read that only a small % of the population hold.

Except that's what polls say.

I'm not making claims about the results - Like everyone else, I'm not letting myself get too hopeful.

The idea that UKIP votes are going to Labour is interesting.

Data from 2015 also suggest Lib Dem votes went to UKIP.

But I think it is far more complex than that. I think Labour vote split over multiple parties in 2015, and Lib Dem vote split in favour of nearly everyone except Labour, and that some Tory vote went to UKIP.

Yes UKIP gained from Labour and Lib Dem, but the gain wasn't wholly due to them. The majority of UKIP gain seems to be Tory loss.

I find it eternally fascinating that Labour gained so little when Lib Dem lost so much, and that is the one fact that really reveals the complexity of what happened in 2015.

Yes some UKIP vote will return to Labour and Lib Dem, but far more of it will return to the Tories.

Most of the analysis I have seen suggests the majority of UKIP votes are expected to go to the Conservatives, and that would make sense.

On getting too hopeful - I'm a tad worried that this is counter productive. We live in London, so maybe have the luxury of walking into Labour victories, but I do think that, in addition to the youth vote turning out, Labour would probably be aided by more vocal support form the middle-class professional vote.

I did see one of those graphs which showed where voters were switching, and yes, UKIP voters were heading to Labour. I'll try and find it.

If you think that the UKIP vote was primarily "working class" in the north and Wales (where UKIP fucked up was targeting disenchanted Tories too much), and that May was going after this vote with launches in places like Brackla and Leeds. When the Conservatives come out with policies like loosing your house to pay for care, and bringing back fox hunting, whilst Labour was going to make it easier for your children to go to college, and targeting the cost of living, the Tory surge in the Welsh polls, for example, went into a quick reverse.

Also what I think/have guessed from squinting at polling data. Was just curious about @606's claim - would be interesting to see data if it exists. If it were true, it would potentially be excellent news as it's the one things everyone has been saying Labour must do.

edit posted before seeing this ^ - cheers! don't stress if you can't find it.

Here's one:

From this New Statesman article (on 5th May), and evidently sourced from YouGov.

I think I might have also seen some analysis by LSE or people like that.

Edit: I have found the YouGov source.

The Tactical 2017 site and the whole initiative more generally is a great piece of work. Thanks for all your hard work in putting it together.

O M G what a graph

But that’s from the beginning of May, when we didn’t have any policies. Since then Wales has gone from this…

Conservatives: 41% (+1)

Labour: 35% (+5)

Plaid Cymru: 11% (-2)

Liberal Democrats: 7% (-1)

UKIP: 4% (-2)

Others: 2% (-1)

to this…

Labour: 44% (+9)
Conservatives: 34% (-7)
Plaid Cymru: 9% (-2)
Liberal Democrats: 6% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (+1)
Others: 3% (+1)

outstanding

That is actually the kind of complex flow of voting behaviour we've been modelling in https://www.tactical2017.com/

UKIP is majority Tory, but it has been a vehicle for some Labour and Lib Dem voters to move to the Tories.

This is more visible in the Northern seats in which Leave was a dominant force in the referendum (those areas where Leave represented more than 60% of the vote).

Different rules seem to apply where Remain achieved 60%+ of the vote.

Also worth mentioning that in those strong Leave seats... all London-centric ideas seem to break down. It's comparable to quantum physics, everything we know suddenly doesn't make sense and certain things seem unknowable :)

'kinell.

Guys, I don't want to point out the obvious, but I think it's meant to be a podium.

https://youtu.be/6O_Yr9pv5gI

hehe

Yep. Decorative beading has no place on a graph.

http://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/three-minutes-of-nothing-herald-reporter-reflects-on-pm-encounter/story-30363961-detail/story.html

As noted on Twitter: "Not convinced this would pass the Turing test"

podiums don't have percentages on them.