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Also what I think/have guessed from squinting at polling data. Was just curious about @606's claim - would be interesting to see data if it exists. If it were true, it would potentially be excellent news as it's the one things everyone has been saying Labour must do.
edit posted before seeing this ^ - cheers! don't stress if you can't find it.
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Here's one:
From this New Statesman article (on 5th May), and evidently sourced from YouGov.
I think I might have also seen some analysis by LSE or people like that.
Edit: I have found the YouGov source.
boristrump
Most of the analysis I have seen suggests the majority of UKIP votes are expected to go to the Conservatives, and that would make sense.