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Most of the analysis I have seen suggests the majority of UKIP votes are expected to go to the Conservatives, and that would make sense.
boristrump-
Also what I think/have guessed from squinting at polling data. Was just curious about @606's claim - would be interesting to see data if it exists. If it were true, it would potentially be excellent news as it's the one things everyone has been saying Labour must do.
edit posted before seeing this ^ - cheers! don't stress if you can't find it.
Is there evidence for this? It would be silly to argue that no past-Ukip voters are voting Labour, but polls seem to show the collapse of Ukip support coinciding with the growth of Tory support.
I think Labour's growth in the polls is coming from all of the other parties. Ukip is a relatively small part of that.