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A lot of UKIP votes are going to Labour.
Is there evidence for this? It would be silly to argue that no past-Ukip voters are voting Labour, but polls seem to show the collapse of Ukip support coinciding with the growth of Tory support.
I think Labour's growth in the polls is coming from all of the other parties. Ukip is a relatively small part of that.
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The idea that UKIP votes are going to Labour is interesting.
Data from 2015 also suggest Lib Dem votes went to UKIP.
But I think it is far more complex than that. I think Labour vote split over multiple parties in 2015, and Lib Dem vote split in favour of nearly everyone except Labour, and that some Tory vote went to UKIP.
Yes UKIP gained from Labour and Lib Dem, but the gain wasn't wholly due to them. The majority of UKIP gain seems to be Tory loss.
I find it eternally fascinating that Labour gained so little when Lib Dem lost so much, and that is the one fact that really reveals the complexity of what happened in 2015.
Yes some UKIP vote will return to Labour and Lib Dem, but far more of it will return to the Tories.
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Most of the analysis I have seen suggests the majority of UKIP votes are expected to go to the Conservatives, and that would make sense.
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I did see one of those graphs which showed where voters were switching, and yes, UKIP voters were heading to Labour. I'll try and find it.
If you think that the UKIP vote was primarily "working class" in the north and Wales (where UKIP fucked up was targeting disenchanted Tories too much), and that May was going after this vote with launches in places like Brackla and Leeds. When the Conservatives come out with policies like loosing your house to pay for care, and bringing back fox hunting, whilst Labour was going to make it easier for your children to go to college, and targeting the cost of living, the Tory surge in the Welsh polls, for example, went into a quick reverse.
Velocio
boristrump
606
A lot of UKIP votes are going to Labour.