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  • This narrowing of the Tory lead is great, but I've still got the sense that it doesn't translate into seats for Labour. Labour's support is pretty heavily concentrated (ie. London constituencies like Hackney North where Abbott has a majority of around 24,000), while last time out the Tories won by narrow margins in a lot of places, converting their votes into MPs more efficiently. I wouldn't be surprised if last year's boundary changes were designed to amplify this effect.

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