• I do wonder if National Polling is missing the smaller picture in some places. Much like in the US polling put Hillary ahead, and was (US wide) pretty much correct for the vote share, it missed that she would lose in key states, and thus lose overall.

    I'm not suggesting that the overall polling is wrong, more that the specific polling in tighter local races isn't being done (or I've not seen it, please point if you have it), and doesn't reflect the feeling on the ground. I'd look to places like Cambridge, Bristol and Bath for this sort of result. Places that (AFAIK) have seen pro-EU protests since the referendum.

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