General Election June 2017

inevitablel

it's time to start calling out people who read this toxic shit in public.

I think this election is a big political mistake by May, to add to her having got just about everything important wrong so far. If she wins, she will most likely cause the Conservative Party long-term damage. It's not good for a party to be too dominant.

It's difficult to speculate about the causes without the inside knowledge she undoubtedly has. It does seem as if her hand was forced by the legal difficulties relating to Conservative election spending in 2015, but it's impossible to say. Her stated reasons for calling the election are certainly utter nonsense.

Obviously, pace everybody, the timing is bad for Labour. I can imagine they knew this was coming, as their policy activity recently has been more than you'd expect during local elections, leading even to positive comment in the Nuadriag:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/15/corbyn-had-good-week-are-people-ready-to-listen-to-ideas

Still, I doubt they're really ready (they would have been a lot more ready without last summer's distractions) and I think the chances of a creditable result for them are slim. They can only hope that the claim, which I've seen several times recently in different media, that their policies are popular with a majority of the electorate, is actually true and will have a sufficient impact.

If May really has some idea that a dominant election result will help her in European elections, she must be completely unaware of how she and the UK are seen in Europe. I doubt that's her real reason, and Labour would do well not to make this election about 'Brexit'. (I doubt they would, anyway.) It's not about that at all, and her suggestion that it is is nothing short of bizarre.

leading even to positive comment in the Nuadriag:

I suspect they'll come out in favour of the Lib Dems, as they did in the Brown, Clegg, Cameron tussle.

You wouldn't want them to continue to suffer in the closet. :)

So would May really call for a vote of no confidence in her own government if Labour didn't back her motion today?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/18/what-is-the-fixed-term-parliaments-act

I'd think it would be a perfect opportunity for Labour MPs opposed to Corbyn to deal him a severe blow. Mathematically, they could do it. I don't expect them to, but as a last hurrah it might be the worst thing they could do. :)

I don't really know how this would play out--it would obviously rather lack decorum on both sides.

On the history leading up to May's U-turn:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/18/the-many-times-theresa-may-ruled-out-an-early-election

Greens do something intelligent which Lab and Lib will probably reject.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/progressive-alliance-greens-labour-lib-dems-anti-tory-pact-a7689986.html

May has only a wafer-thin Parliamentary majority. This allows the remnants of John Major's 'b4st4rds', (Career-long brexitters, Cash, Redwood, IDS possibly others who are even less memorable), plus recent opportunists, (Gove), to wield disproportionate negative power in the forlorn Brexit debate. (Witness Gove et al walking out of the Parliamentary committee on Brexit that dared to suggest that there could be negative outcomes from leaving the EU).

None of these wreckers, (that I recognise), have ever been employed in the productive part of the economy and have no concept of the benefits of the Customs Union or pan-EU harmonisation of standards. They fail to understand what will happen to the UK economy if in March 2019 we 'just walk away' with WTO as a fallback position.

I have no idea what Tory Central Office have been doing to vet their parliamentary candidates, but May must be hoping to return to Westminster with a majority to vote through some strategic compromises despite the 'referendum b4st4rds'.

Of course the simplest route would have been for John Major, [after his hissy fit resignation as Leader of the Conservative Party, dubiously remaining as PM, and defeating the ludicrous Redwood], to have expelled the b4st4rds to make them stand as explicit early ukippers, where they could have dissipated their time in the poltical wastelands of lost deposits. Neil Kinnock had the strength to expel Militant.
The Tory party sees no problem with its spectrum of support including British Nationalists and overt racists.

Corbyn has to accept election so he doesn't seem weak, May can reject debates - probably little fuss. U think they should make a song and dance about this. I know it's not unprecedented but the debates were very public last time and Corbyn has typically done decent in pmqs.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/what-snap-election-means-tory-10250515

May has only a wafer-thin Parliamentary majority. This allows the remnants of John Major's 'b4st4rds', (Career-long brexitters, Cash, Redwood, IDS possibly others who are even less memorable), plus recent opportunists, (Gove), to wield disproportionate negative power in the forlorn Brexit debate.

Interesting, so May also trying to make herself less vulnerable to those?

A great slogan for the election:

Make June the end of May

So will this kind of manipulation influence the election/any future elections, too?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/17/brexit-voter-manipulation-eu-referendum-social-media

This please.

I am a long way from being a Corbynista but acknowledge that the only way to do anything at all in this election is to vote Labour. I apppreciate that Labour are likely to lose but this election is not about who will win but the size and nature of the opposition.

It is unlikely that Momentum will be able to enforce reselction of all candidates before the election, although this has been threatened. If they achieved that, they could also achieve a wipe out at this election. As such, the MPs who are returned for Labour will shape the oppostion in the future. Although Corbyn is unlikely to resign if he loses, he will not stay for a full five years. Who replaces him will, largely, be determined by who is returned for Labour.

The Liberals, with the strangely homophobic Farron, are not credible and have shown that they are a party of personal promotion rather than policy. Corbyn, for all his faults, is sincere.

And who knows. One thing that is certain is that we are undergoing a massive political upheaval. Traditional party loyalties are gone. While the polls suggest one thing, in reality, anything could happen. It might be a forlorn hope but there is a scintilla of hope.

The theory behind the spreadsheet makes sense although I would question that using the results from 2015 as the basis for decisions is a good idea. That election was arguably skewed in that it marked a reaction to the Lib Dems' terrible coalition experience, and also Labour's inability to tackle the indomitable Tory/Crosby propaganda machine. And quite a lot has changed in the political landsacpe over the following two years (not least Labour's internal machinations, and the Lib Dems' supposed grassroots recovery). Still, the spreadsheet is a starting point, and no doubt will be fine-tuned.

But Corbyns labour is pro brexit? How does voting labour solve anything?

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2017/04/18/how-the-general-election-could-go-against-theresa-may

TL:DR Tories will win, but there are opportunities to damage May's reign.

A progressive alliance would be dreamy, the Greens are open to this, but Labour is not.

Corbyn has principles, but when he needs to take action on these to stop results that go against said principles, he won't do it. But voting pro-remain candidates that can win, Labour or LibDem (depends on where you are) or Remain Tories that stood up against May can still damage her.

long-term

No longer matters in politics

I think many will find the idea of voting Labout problematic for that very reason.

I recall John Curtice theorising as to whether Labour had miscalculated their Brexit position (and I suspect that there may be some truth/potential in that idea).

http://ukandeu.ac.uk/is-labours-brexit-dilemma-being-misunderstood/

Oh, it will in the long term.

This whole thing is why that intercept article I posted is so on point.

Labour should be pro brexit, conservatives anti brexit and lib dems probably anti, but they're not.

1 Attachment

I feel this is the opportunity for the Lib Dems to resurgence. But they have some big issues to over come and a lot of work. They need to rebuild public trust, and sadly, they do not get the media attention anymore to do so.

But voting Labour does not solve anything. It changes everything, but for who knows what direction.

Good post, but:

Although Corbyn is unlikely to resign if he loses...

Why do you think that?

I don't see Corbyn as someone who would cling onto power. I see him as someone who honestly believes in what he's trying to accomplish, and believes he has the mandate (from the party) to try to put himself forward. A failure in a general election surely trumps this mandate and I would like to think he'd walk.