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How does this sound for a theory behind Sagan tactics in the cobbled classics?
Because his team lacks strength in depth, he knows he'll be isolated in the final 50 kms of a race, especially against teams that do have that strength in depth like QuickStep, BMC and Sky. To counter this, he makes the race selective much earlier than is normal to put himself in a position where he's racing the other team leaders without them having supporting riders, knowing that he can match them in strength and, on the whole, beat them in a sprint.
Saturday, which is the more prestigious race, definitely followed this pattern, but he probably did more than his condition allowed, meaning Van Avermaet could beat him in a sprint. On Sunday, because of the nature of the course, other teams were prepared to work hard from a long way out, but when it looked like the race might all come together, Sagan made sure he was in a good move with strong riders all looking to get a result, meaning they had the incentive to work with him to the line.