EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

ParkLeben!

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/01/26/no-longer-welcome-the-eu-academics-in-britain-told-to-make-arrangements-to-leave/

TL:DR those threatening home letters to leave are standard issue.
But: "... the decision on whether to accept or reject these applications is based on the “Nationality, Immigration and Asylum Act 2002 and Regulation 26 of the Immigration (European Economic Area) Regulations 2006”, The latter will be repealed in the Great Repeal Bill planned by the government, which could rescind any ‘right to remain’ granted under existing law and regulations."

Fun times. Again I am hoping the soup isn't eaten as hot as it's served (to use a German saying) but yeah... hassle. And a lot of costly rewriting of laws.

On the subject of the Germans, I learned yesterday that in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote, Angela Merkel was expecting to get a secret late-night visit from Theresa May to seek a swift renegotiation of the terms agreed by Cameron. Aparrently, Merkel was willing to assist in securing the type of concessions that might have helped win over the 'Leavers'. But Theresa didn't do anything of the sort, and so made her first mistake of blundering on stubbornly.

Source?

Theresa May wasn't leader in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote.

She was within a month or so? Then she went on a walking holiday somewhere from memory.

I wonder if that's true. It seems plausible.

ParkLeben!

sehr gut

^^is that nazi for tramp beers?

It seems plausible.

No, it doesn't.

A quick "Neither of us want this, what can we do" meeting doesn't seem plausible?

Every utterance from Merkel has been "no access to the single-market without freedom of movement". I find the idea that she would then do a secret deal, behind the back of the rest of the EU, with the UK, pretty far fetched.

Not if you think about it in these terms:

1) David Cameron flounces into EU meetings swinging his schlong around saying (as he supposedly did): "I'm going to win this referendum with a 70% vote so don't you worry your pretty little heads..."

2) The bad thing happens and 'Leave' wins. That is (mostly) a bit of a shock, and as people quickly realise the potential for huge long-term disruption/loss, there is a window of opportunity to make some possibly significant concessions to avoid a whole load of collateral damage. In this instance, we're not talking about Merkel as the decision-maker, but rather as the most influential person at the table, so someone who can win others round.

3) As that window of opportunity closes, the hard brinksmanship of the negotiation process resumes, and everyone tightens their public position.

1) That was not the case though was it? He was pissed off that the rest of the EU wouldn't listen to him and would only give "meagre" concessions.

You could suggest to Bob that, in order to truly be a democracy, we should get rid of the queen too.

Well, I recall reading various accounts that suggest he thought he was going to win, and few (if any) where he seriously considered the prospect of losing. But obviously, it's difficult to know for sure.

However, if you combine that mindset with Cameron's all-too-familiar complacency, then you've got a scenario where you enter negotiations half-heartedly, and leave yourself too little time to do any fixing if it starts to look like it might not go your away.

How many whips would a Labour whip whip if a labour whip could whip whips?

Or, erm, something.

This week from The Nu Eu (Do you Nu Eu yet?)

1 Attachment

Angry rant points from me :)

But, is it fair to be angry at others for not "knowing better?"

People can be manipulated into voting against their own interests.

And they just did a study that showed working class people earn over £2000 lees per year than middle class people for the same jobs with the same experience.

I suspect power is in the hands of the wrong people to even take brexit as a chance to fix poverty and social mobility issues, but don't we all deserve health care and a chance?

(Not me I'm not from here :P )

https://twitter.com/TonysAngle/status/825427032515428353

But I'm sure the UK will do better. I mean, we've got a special relationship!

On mystery EU deal with Germany: the source appears to be nick clegg. Not sure if that makes it more or less reliable.

http://www.qmul.ac.uk/media/news/items/hss/191708.html

Huh, trade dropped?

Is that a free paper, or behind a paywal?

I'm intrigued.

BTW read Milan Brankovitz book on inequality you may like it :)

Fill your boots: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/pdf/ajrc/wpapers/2015/201501.pdf

Tx!

Are you interested in an article on the company using BigData that was used by Brexit, Trump and now Lepen?

Everyone's on about Cambridge Analytica
https://www.ft.com/content/bee3298c-e304-11e6-9645-c9357a75844a
https://www.dasmagazin.ch/2016/12/03/ich-habe-nur-gezeigt-dass-es-die-bombe-gibt/
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-12-08/no-big-data-didn-t-win-the-u-s-election
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/big-data-cambridge-analytica-brexit-trump

Trump won by a tiny margin in a few swing states - highly targeted strategic communication may well have helped. But the role of CA is probably being overblown a bit.

That said, this from Tett's piece in the FT

While Mr Nix says CA did not have enough time to roll out all its “psychographic” tricks, it used its data to identify which voters could be “flipped” to support Mr Trump, and which Clinton supporters could be persuaded to stay at home with personally targeted messages. They advised Mr Trump on which cities to visit and which messages to use.

Rings very true to me - there was some pretty classic voter suppression going on alongside the dogwhistling.

It's not that brexit was won on a 60-40 landslide...

Besides CA may improve as time goes on :/