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Cazakstan
My own rule = if 4+degrees C on the central London forecast then you will be fine outside London. If it is lower than that and it has rained in the last few days I wouldn't.
Most of the back roads in the Chilterns are narrow, some have tree cover (even when leafless) so this can mean the ground temp doesn't rise above 0, even if it is a dry day.
Looks like a lovely route, I've done some of it.