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The coming cold snap has been in the forecast models for about a week now, so I think it's fairly high confidence that it will soon be cold - the uncertainty is more about the exact onset and the severity. But if anything, it's looking colder in the latest runs than in the runs at the end of last week, so I wouldn't hold much hope of it suddenly turning out mild.
Main thing for me is whether it'll be snowing/raining. Freezing and dry is no problem, freezing and wet is borderline and no way am I riding on slick 25s in snow.
h2o
@youramericanlover
I trust UK weather temp predictions three days in advance tops, and one day for precipitation. Any ride-affecting weather situations we can discuss the night before/morning of.
It might actually get Cold though so those riding out please watch out for ice if it's been below freezing.