EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

i thought it was to appease the liberal neopolitan elite, all of whom should be forced to put up a refugee family in their manhattan style loft appartments?

Or that immigration for jobs means you have a healthy economy because people don't go where there are no jobs?

And you can put in some protectionism to ensure it goes to locals first for being suitable/pays well? Oh but wait, that means PROPER labour protection which the Tories don't want. (and neolibs either, but they're not racist in general if you can do the job, you are good, which isn't the Tories atm who fake protectionism but use xenophobia for it)

[the socialists would say you can't have proper protectionism in the EU, but meh, I'm sure you can bend the rules a bit if you're smart enough]

Or, I dunno, fix skill shortages if you can?

BloodyForeigner here obv. :)

It is already law in the UK that all jobs have to be advertised domestically for 30 days before going on the international market.

So clearly there's a commercial reason jobs aren't filled. How is this new with decades of some jobs being filled by foreign employment?

Or they are so crap people don't want to do them/they end up with no more cash than on benefits (the benefit trap) but a lot more stress/hassle.

According to some research globalisation doesn't perse benefit people under a certain wage limit BTW, I'm not going to say it's all rosy. "for you 10 others"

But government policy can have some influence, and don't we vote in these people to be smarter than us....oh wait ;)

its a deliberate decision to achieve certain goals.

Right, but the problem seems to be opposing views on the route to achieve those goals.

I brushed up on Camerons deal before I posted that and to try and consider the opposing view read the Express' reporting of it.

Something I found endlessly fascinating in both the article and comments was the view that "we" have no control. Everything is dictated.

Of course we do "give up" some rights and controls, but I agree that people massively underestimate the powers we do have, but just ignore.

I wonder how much of that narrative has been willfully created so they can say "not me gov".

Right, but the problem seems to be opposing views on the route to achieve those goals.

Sort of. There are several ways to skin a cat. Its a bit of opposing views on how to solve problems but also a lot of people who seem to believe that immigrants are a bad thing who cause rather than solve all of our problems and that the Uk will be immediately better off without them.

The beauty of an immigrant focused narrative is its simple.

Everyone can understand it. Everyone can see it.

Trying to even get a grasp of the seemingly infinite other conflicting choices and complex issues is near impossible....

I have never seen anything that attempts to quantify the cost/benefits of immigration in social cohesion. I wonder if anyone has done this?
Arguments for immigration tend to be economic. Arguments against tend to be xenophobic.

But for example, when a large local employer closes there will often be an assessment of the cost of that closure not just in the jobs and incomes, but in its deleterious effect on social wellbeing and cohesion. Local reaction to large scale immigrant influxes (e.g. Somalians in Barking) seem to me to be an expression of the same thing. If it could be measured, quantified and demonstrably factored into the economic arguments for immigration then public trust in the positive benefits of immigration might rise.

To put it into a measurable unit is a great idea: How would you breakdown social cohesion/wellbeing in monetary terms, and how much do you need to invest to resolve it?

The Greens BTW came up with an idea to plough some of the economic gains of immigration into areas with a lot of it to pay for English classes, school places etc. But then yeah ppl don't vote Green in large numbers..

Integration takes time, you'd need to measure over a period of at least 100 years to capture how the incomers assimilate into the resident population - and what the social and economic impact is.

i.e. the Barking Somalians - what does the area look like in 20 years when there's a whole generation of young adults of Somalian descent, then 50 years out when they have kids. Who have they married? Have the majority stayed? What macro events have informed the micro?

Issue is that all the current brouhaha is built upon timescales shorter than a TV series run - so you have the shock of forrins who don't speak the language/speak all funny, and are likely all members of that ISIS, and they'll be (assumption!) taking low paid jobs due to low levels of English and qualifications recognised in the UK.

My Grandad had a funny accent his whole life - but he was from a country that had (and has) English as a second language, at a very high level, for pretty much the entire population. He was also a GP whose qualifications transferred. His kids also spoke funny - but that was due to growing up in Wolverhampton.

My Grandad moved to an area with a lot of Maltese families - it's a natural thing to do.

None of his children live in Wolverhampton, they all left when they were of the age to go to Uni, I went there for the first time for his funeral.

We're now around 70 years since he first came over, I live in London, my brother is in Winchester, my cousins are in the US, Malta (of course), Canada, and Kent (from my Grandads kids, not the whole family).

Where will we be in 30 years? I don't know, the majority of us are contributing to UK "society" at the moment (albeit through the medium of bicycles in my case), and the odd post notwithstanding I'd not say I was an offence to social cohesion. We shall see I guess.

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/01/05/world/europe/cedric-herrou-migrant-smuggler-trial-france.html

That story makes me feel hopeful.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/05/bank-england-admits-michael-fish-moment-dire-brexit-predictions/

^Thats bollocks, all the predictions were based on Cameron immediately issuing A50 which he swerved and dumped on his replacement. The bizarre lack of Brexit effects might be because we've not yet brexited. The Telegraph is totally committed to the leave side and this type of disingenuous horseshit is typical.

was in The Guardian too though somewhat more buried in the article , it was also in The Times ( pro brexit i guess ) ?
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/britain-has-worlds-top-economy-after-brexit-rt7j9lccb
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/05/chief-economist-of-bank-of-england-admits-errors?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H+categories&utm_term=207161&subid=16175695&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2

And the use of his quotes is markedly different. Still misses the central issue which was that the predictions and associated model were wrong (it's correct here) but only in terms of time-of-impact. The doom is still coming- A50 is the first trump.

Yeah I'm kinda hoping people more knowledgeable will discuss this sort of thing. I'm biased against the Telegraph but also know so little about economics that I have no idea. It reads as an attempt to give weight to the many 'popular' voices that say "look it's not nearly as terrible as you said it would be, haha egg on your face, it's totally fine" (be it brexit or trump or privatisation or climate change) which automatically gets my back up because I'm naturally risk averse and think a little caution isn't all bad. So back to bias.
It still is shit though, right?

"look it's not nearly as terrible as you said it would be, haha egg on your face, it's totally fine"

This is exactly what it is. More than this probably - it's probably closer to saying "look it's not nearly as terrible as you said it would be, haha egg on your face, now we can ignore everything you say 'cos you're always wrong kthxbai"

It still is shit though, right?

Yeah.

Experts tho

I wonder if May has had a stern but quiet word in his ear and told him to step in line.

After a couple of weeks hiatus we've got our New European back...
Here's this weeks snip

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What about the ftse100 and the record levels of investment from overseas? Eh? Stick that in your experts pipe and smoke it.

Oh and you're not allowed to mention a weak pound, otherwise you're talking to down UK Plc. But it doesn't matter anyway because now we can get back to focusing on exporting manufactured goods.

All jokes aside, this is such uncharted waters and as no one knows what Brexit is yet I don't know how anyone can think they can predict the effects (positive or negative).

At least Micheal Fish knew what "the weather" meant.

Depends on the area.

I don't see northern Ireland losing EU developing regions money as positive. We get so much investment here and will lose all of it.

Ireland is also shitting it's pants over possible trade issues. Our closest trading partner that also relies on NI is very worried.

I think it's very well possible to make short - term predictions for certain aspects.

Long term depends on what comes out of the EU negotiations.

But it wouldn't surprise me if this turns the UK more into the 52nd state of the USA long term. The buffering aspect of the EU gone, the EU being able to move on with certain things means the UK needs to prop itself up otherwise.

International politics and trading is horsetrading and friends making, which friends the UK makes can have long term consequences for us all.

Does the new Europa address the identity politics at the heart of all this?

I doubt more and more this was a rational vote, rather than a gut feel vote. Which means the snip is correct but addressing the wrong issue...