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it can really change day to day. There's always some people who are very quick but haven't raced much, and some people who struggle to ride in a straight line. When it's just 4's or 4's+3's generally there is a bit less cohesion than with the higher cats. People are less willing to ride on the front or help chase down breaks. This means if you've got some good fitness or a strong sprint it's easier to sit in until the right time then take a flyer. At Lee Valley the cat 4's were never slow, only a few mph less on average than the 1,2,3's, it's just a mix of people that don't have enough experience to know how to win or can't regulate their effort.
thank you. @sumo is the 4th cat a waste of time or is the standard pretty high?