EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

If the EU continues in the same direction france will pull out and so might italy.

the EU is a PR disaster, it does many good things but in peoples minds well they cant even name one and if they do it obviously is not important. so changes are not always practical they are political i.e image. It is the image of the EU that has to change more so than its substance. Hence I pick on free movement as one of the 4 pillars the commision and some EU states hold so dear. If they want the project to hold together they have show change is possible and not just in the direction of ever closer intergration. The change does not have to be big but it has to be in peoples mind meaningful. so yes while freedom of movement may mean different things in different countries but the law is the same. Remember when cameron cam back from his negociations he did not spell out that EU citizens can be sent home if they lack the resources or do not have social security provision. Yes that is our governments fault and we still have some of the same people at the top. I dont see that changing do you. However France, Italy, the Netherlands also have issue with free movement of people as it also allows the free movement of illegal migrants and the right across europe is playing on that alot.
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/atyourservice/en/displayFtu.html?ftuId=FTU_2.1.3.html

sometimes to take a step forward you have to take a step back.

Yes the EU is in a bind. It has lost a sense of direction except that vauge notion of ever closer union and because of that people and nations start pulling in different directions. A bit like the U.K really. Scotland pulls one way england another because at the top the country is a bit aimless apart from brexit means brexit.

whether a leader can emerge that can provide a vision that a majority can believe in is another matter but the nation state is important still and I think people in Britain, france, Italy want to feel proud of the country and what it can do but feel that the country can no longer do things for them. That is probably more image than reality but in britains it is reality too. We cant even build enough houses or get trains in the south to run on time or run at all. When the state steps back and outsources it functions (like in many EU countries as it EU policy) you get voters who end up feeling they want there country back. that is how I see it.

Saying I dont see what the problem is stonehenge (I agree with you actually on free movement) is actually the problem. Other do see a problem (on a variety of issue not just immigration and that is where tory polticians are wrong in saying they know the message from the referendum) and they felt ignored and that there country no longer listened. The message was our system of government no longer listens and delivers on the needs of its population. Fix that or else. It is not indivual polticicans that are the problem (well some of them are) but the undue influence that some have and system they work in. However the problem has never been expressed that way.

It is not just the EU that is in a bind.

The irony in this all is that states run the risk/are actually becoming weaker and weaker, and really have to group together to tackle international issues.

So by weakening the EU people that don't have citizen interests at heart also win. (well and the socialists, but if the unite magazine layout is anything to go by they are 30 years behind)

The cash flow in the EU needs to improve, if there's more sharing of cash there's great potential. Look at Northern Ireland, we've had so many nice things build with EU developing regions cash.

If that model can be replicated w/o screwing over Southern States (Italy etc.) there's potential. Tackling inequality and freedom of movement benefitting people internally (Spain has a huge unemployment issue) and a clear nationalist vision SNP-wise may work.

You DO luckily see new movements in the EU with anti TTIP/CETA campaigns being successful (and rightly so) but it's never going to be easy with so many states.

that's part of the problem the EU tried to do to much too soon before it was ready. Single currency before there was sufficent intergration on tax and spending which may never have come. Expansion east to gives those countries stability but in turn that has created alot of friction with russia and the EU is now a lumbering beast. It was britain who was keen on expansion east to counter the influence of germany but in the process we broke the EU and the other states let us but also they have done this to themselves through hubris.

I think the EU will have to reform free movement of people

Ditto.

All the Brexitiers have just jumped the gun on something that is going to be reduced/amended in the long run anyway.

The leave camp have just managed to spin it into something, when as others have pointed out UK politician have chosen to have the level of immigration we have.

The EU tried to have more integration on tax but it was voted down. No surprise in a way as the Republic of Ireland gains a lot of low corporation tax and sweetheart deals.

What bugs me a bit is with all this "freedom of movement" complaining that's done people don't see the upsides. It's there for everyone to take, but a lot of people only see "themmuns" coming in. And those "muslim immigrants" people complain about aren't from the EEC.

So the EU gets blamed for a lot of problems it didn't cause, Syria refugee crisis is the USA/Russia proxy wars, the UK is not helping in Yemen btw, but it's all spun into "but those guys are taking jobs and bringing in weird stuff we don't like".

It needs reform but the populist movements aren't exactly honest about what and how it needs reformed either. There's a lot of "themmuns did it" going on, and we see how well that works in Northern Ireland (NOT at all)

I cannot see how there is not at least some correlation between high house prices, high rents, crowded roads and trains and depressed wages on the one hand and high levels of net immigration on the other.

And that correlation would be due to?

Also, are the high house prices a good or bad thing, likewise the rents?

The tories and blair's/brown's labour surely?

There's many things going on unfortunately.

Those who say some people don't want to do some jobs are right (and I can't blame those who don't want to take some jobs btw)
Those who say recruitment is setup abroad and uses trick to pay people lower wages via all sorts of schemes that they can't use for local passport holders they are right too
Those who say there are skill shortages are also right but it's all played out like only one group can be right.

But for immigration loading up trains/roads, I think it's basically cities/areas having problems due to their own success: Belfast is now starting to get bunged to the hilt road wise cos the jobs are here. I doubt areas with no jobs have this problem. And if the UK would have a population boom you have the same problem by "locals"... :)

The UK/West could pull out of Syria and leave the ME alone. If we all want to pay a lot more for oil/energy guaranteed to semi crash the economy until alternatives are found...but then what are the implications of that? Russia/China will go in and take over, and the USA will drop the UK (and god knows what they have in each others black books). That doesn't mean we can't do better, but it won't be easy.

But perhaps it's not all doom and gloom: If people are given neutral data to pick out, maybe they will make a choice that's reasoned. Politics really causes more division than people have in them.

[that's assuming people are willing to work with this, but no doubt a scientist somewhere have figure out some ways to dig us out of this hole somewhere, but what do experts know :)]

I think part of the problem is that a lot of people have a decent standard of English as a second language so it's easier for people to move here whereas there are fewer people in the UK who can take the opportunities in Europe.

Therefore the free movement seems skewed against the UK due to the lack of opportunities (in a large part due to the UK).

The problem is simpler a lack of pride and belief that britain can make its citizens lives better. How to solve that though is a tricky conundrum but maybe a start is not worrying about what sort of deal we will get with EU but starting to look at how we govern ourselves. If we can get that right then maybe the rest will fall into place.

Another part of the problem is the belief that the U.K should not cannot influence the world. Now we believe we are a small nation we become small.

that is the core of the problem. Our government thinks small, we have become small therefore we flounder. What is the difference between a small business and a bigger one. the bigger one has an owner that had ambition.

what is britains ambition?

what is britains ambition?

A red, white and blue Brexit, duh.

(But mostly white)

The problem is simpler a lack of pride and belief that britain can make its citizens lives better

All the things Britain needed to do to make its citizens' lives better it could have done within the EU. Our government and voters chose not to. I have no idea why leaving the EU and trashing our economy (short to medium term at least) means that will change.

I've been saying this for years, we need some educational reform to help integrate into Europe better.
It is infinitely harder to learn a second language after the age of 11, so why are we teaching kids French and German from ages 12 onwards? European schools teach languages from age 5 when language acquisition abilities are much better

Most UK private schools start languages at age 5. I agree, needs to be more widespread.

The problem is simpler a lack of pride and belief that britain can make its citizens lives better.

But if you compare recent polls, then our belief in the future, though down, is still ahead of the rest of Europe.

Southern Europe is fucked, the east is getting by, and the rich Germanic parts are worried about refugees and future prosperity.

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The lack of a decent minimum wage and lack of strong unions are the cause of depressed wages.
Successive governments not prioritising house building and actively stoking a housing bubble (tax relief for buy to let investors, Help to buy) is the main cause of high house prices and high rents.

Blaming immigration for low wages is a common misconception, but blaming them for high house prices and crowded roads and trains is taking it a bit far. Just anti-immigrant propaganda.

Foreign language TV with subtitles works really quite well too... that's how us Dutchies pick up languages too.

I think there are online courses with skype too, there's the Rosetta stone. FYI I only got English in Dutch school from 11...but videogames/TV sorted that, and holidays in Austria sorted the German. I hate the grammar though!

But you can get by in many places with just English...it's gotta be part cultural too, people not wanting to move.

Well why would you want to move from the best country in the world? You know, the one that's going to the dogs cos of all the forrins?

Gosh this brexittery is quite confusing isn't it?

The UK immigrants pensioning in Spain didn't get that message I think :p

They're not immigrants. They are ex-pats.

Now if you agree that more people using services like trains and roads make them more crowded, and that more workers looking for jobs helps surpress wages (ie if you accept the very basics of economics)

Not and economist, but I've always found it amusing how you can describe almost anything in completely opposite ways.

For example: More people ("immigrants") -> more demand for services (more trains and roads needed, more stuff being bought) -> more jobs -> increased wages.

Perception is reality and it's unlikely that the realities of those that post on here are being adversely affected by the stresses of immigration.

Just turning your nose up and calling people bigoted Brexiteers is useless.

I don't remember many of you getting out on the campaign trail and bestowing the virtues of EU membership pre-Brexit...

"Perception is reality" True that.
But not everyone chooses the same solution to this perception: Some are still Union members, and others go full UKIP.

"the realities of those that post on here are being adversely affected by the stresses of immigration."
Low wage immigration, according to some datasets, actually hurts immigrants more than UK born. (fact check UK)

On top of that immigrants are treated to a double whammy of xenophobia and being seen as second-class citizens that should just STFU now.

We are just here as money pots, remember? Once we serve our purpose, out!

I find it difficult to have a product conversation on politics even w/o calling names it seems people often don't have a super clear idea on why they voted out. Then once you understand the issue simple solutions win over. Cos Brexit is going to fix this all, right?

I live in a "working class" area of Belfast. Who gets most immigrants? Always lower income areas. Is this an issue? It depends. On the work, the area etc etc.

Where do the jobs go? Agricultural/meat packing jobs, mostly to immigrants in NI. Is this an issue? Depends, if the locals don't want to do them, but sometimes there's exploitation or undercutting going on.

Perception is reality and it's unlikely that the realities of those that post on here are being adversely affected by the stresses of immigration.

Just turning your nose up and calling people bigoted Brexiteers is useless.

I don't remember many of you getting out on the campaign trail and bestowing the virtues of EU membership pre-Brexit...

Are you suggesting that you have been adversely affected by the stresses of immigration?

I, and I'd suggest most people "on here" have experienced (and continue to experience) the opposite- by which I mean working with forrins, associating (the thought!) with forrins socially and entering into commercial relationships with them for goods and or services. We've benefitted from our interactions with immigrants. I'm a second generation immigrant, so I've directly benefitted from the ability for people to move to the UK.

Is that because the entire population of LFGSS are members of the metropolitan liberal elite? Possibly. It's also possible that pretty much everything that people have associated with immigration is, in fact, government policy - such as forrins pushing the minimum wage down.

A wage which is defined by legislation - the freedom of the market is to choose by how much they exceed that minimum, not dip under it (unless you are sell trainers, when you're allowed to be as exploitative as you possibly can, then get knighted).

I agree that insulting Brexiteers for being bigots isn't going to change anything - shouting at drivers who give you a close pass doesn't do much either, ultimately, but it's cathartic if nothing else.

Donating money to the campaigns being run by people like Jolyon Maugham who IS doing something - something I'd recommend anyone who cares about where the country is potentially going to do.

Ultimately we, the MLE, are likely to be fine - we're above the line as it were, it'll be the poorer sections of society who get fucked just that little bit harder than they are today by the economies reaction to Brexit. We can all choose to leave - and move to wherever our Financial Services industry ends up, Frankfurt maybe, or Paris. Not an option if you are on a zero hours contract in Nando's.